{
  "date": "2026-08-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-06T00:29:00.958273",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 198,
    "odds_matched_count": 103,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 23,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824158,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2032,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2272,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2034,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824646,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2086,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824889,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.202,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1831,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823429,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2359,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2104,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824158,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 530,
      "over_odds": 530,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2227,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1998,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.48,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824482,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2168,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2444,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.217,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_id": 514888,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824158,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2375,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2116,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824806,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2025,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1834,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.39,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_id": 680776,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824728,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 715,
      "over_odds": 715,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2437,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2164,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824322,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 575,
      "over_odds": 575,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2159,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2432,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.216,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2032,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 46.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 530,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.48
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2168,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.39
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 715,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 575,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2159,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}