{
  "date": "2026-08-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-07T00:06:16.452405",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 144,
    "odds_matched_count": 78,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 26,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824481,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2754,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2408,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823430,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2255,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2556,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2256,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 825053,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2005,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2238,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2006,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824804,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2177,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1957,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.68,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824804,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2269,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2032,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824664,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2121,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1912,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824080,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2106,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1901,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824804,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2141,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1929,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823105,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1992,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1808,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824885,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1994,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1809,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2255,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2005,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.68
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.24
      }
    ]
  }
}