{
  "date": "2026-08-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-08T00:26:29.034350",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 153,
    "odds_matched_count": 87,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 14,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823428,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1971,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822863,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1923,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2136,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1924,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.69,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823515,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2091,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822863,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1831,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2022,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1832,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.93,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823515,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1819,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2008,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.182,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.57,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 823103,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1903,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1735,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_id": 656941,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823428,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 280,
      "over_odds": 280,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2088,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.28,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 823103,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1892,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1725,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Aaron Judge",
      "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge",
      "hitter_id": 592450,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823515,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 240,
      "over_odds": 240,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2307,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2062,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Plus-money HR price"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "player_name": "Matt Chapman",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman",
      "hitter_id": 656305,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823191,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 525,
      "over_odds": 525,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1986,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1802,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.03,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1923,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.69
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1831,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.93
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1819,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.57
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 280,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.28
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Aaron Judge",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 240,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 39.06
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Chapman",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 525,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1801,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.03
      }
    ]
  }
}