{
  "date": "2026-08-08",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-09T00:20:42.810995",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 162,
    "odds_matched_count": 90,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 26,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822864,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2095,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2351,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2097,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823426,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2417,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2149,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 825049,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2097,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824079,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2035,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1842,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.23,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_id": 696100,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823021,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1796,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.198,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1797,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823426,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2282,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.259,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2283,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Brandon Marsh",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh",
      "hitter_id": 669016,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823426,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 780,
      "over_odds": 780,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2244,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2011,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825049,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 525,
      "over_odds": 525,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1903,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2111,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1905,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.09,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823834,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1861,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.17,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.94,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-08",
      "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_id": 686668,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823021,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2138,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1927,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.75,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2095,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.23
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1796,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2282,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Marsh",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 780,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 525,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1903,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.09
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.94
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.75
      }
    ]
  }
}