{
  "date": "2026-08-09",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-10T00:01:41.754776",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 162,
    "odds_matched_count": 120,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 64,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Kody Clemens",
      "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens",
      "hitter_id": 665019,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823751,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2247,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2014,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Trent Grisham",
      "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham",
      "hitter_id": 663757,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823513,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2394,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2736,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2395,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823425,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.239,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
      "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
      "hitter_id": 677800,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824724,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.239,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824078,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2344,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822862,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2562,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2261,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822862,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2514,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2224,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823513,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2453,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2176,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
      "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin",
      "hitter_id": 686948,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823513,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2413,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2145,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822862,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.282,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2458,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Kody Clemens",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trent Grisham",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2394,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      }
    ]
  }
}