{
  "date": "2026-08-10",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-10T08:05:33.548967",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 69,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 15,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823675,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2359,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2102,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823998,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2088,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1886,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.92,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823998,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1998,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1812,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_id": 666176,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823998,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1901,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1733,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.93,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 822780,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1945,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1769,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_id": 666182,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824887,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 725,
      "over_odds": 725,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2097,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 822780,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1775,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1954,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1776,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_id": 605137,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823675,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 555,
      "over_odds": 555,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1754,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1929,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1756,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_id": 660821,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 822780,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 685,
      "over_odds": 685,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1692,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1854,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1694,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 35.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_id": 660271,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 823918,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 250,
      "over_odds": 250,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2081,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.188,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 35.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.92
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jo Adell",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.93
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.04
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 725,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1775,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Bell",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 555,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1754,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 37.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 685,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1692,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 35.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 250,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 35.61
      }
    ]
  }
}