{
  "date": "2026-08-12",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-12T08:05:44.052718",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 91,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 19,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824883,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2402,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2136,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823916,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2311,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2064,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 825047,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2195,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.13,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_id": 676475,
      "team": "STL",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823017,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 625,
      "over_odds": 625,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2318,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2071,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823916,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 500,
      "over_odds": 500,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1917,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2128,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1918,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824562,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2113,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2374,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2114,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823994,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2052,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1856,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Nick Kurtz",
      "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz",
      "hitter_id": 701762,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 824967,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 280,
      "over_odds": 280,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2356,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_id": 605137,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823672,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2152,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1937,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.08,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823263,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1967,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1787,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.13
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
        "team": "STL",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 625,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 500,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1917,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.51
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2113,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.45
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Nick Kurtz",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 280,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2099,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Bell",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.08
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.78
      }
    ]
  }
}