{ "date": "2026-08-13", "generated_at": "2026-08-13T08:06:00.668485", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 99, "odds_matched_count": 60, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 17, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824238, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275, "expected_home_runs": 0.2581, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2276, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 823508, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2269, "expected_home_runs": 0.2574, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.227, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 824561, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1877, "expected_home_runs": 0.2079, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1879, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.31, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 822696, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841, "expected_home_runs": 0.2035, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1842, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.23, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "James Wood", "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 822696, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1849, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.64, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823508, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 295, "over_odds": 295, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.195, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 823995, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 490, "over_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.182, "expected_home_runs": 0.2009, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1821, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team": "BOS", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 822776, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 535, "over_odds": 535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "expected_home_runs": 0.2156, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.194, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.37, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823669, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 580, "over_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884, "expected_home_runs": 0.2088, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.52, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "player_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 823508, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 520, "over_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804, "expected_home_runs": 0.1989, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1805, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 39.52, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2269, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.4 }, { "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1877, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.31 }, { "player_name": "Michael Busch", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.23 }, { "player_name": "James Wood", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.64 }, { "player_name": "Cal Raleigh", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 295, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.0 }, { "player_name": "Zach Neto", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 490, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.182, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.4 }, { "player_name": "Willson Contreras", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.37 }, { "player_name": "Trea Turner", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 580, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 40.52 }, { "player_name": "Ben Rice", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 39.52 } ] } }