{
  "date": "2026-08-14",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-14T08:04:49.420741",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 71,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 27,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824399,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2247,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2013,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824968,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822777,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2237,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2006,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823185,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2086,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.09,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823185,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.185,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2046,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1851,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.5,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824882,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2244,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2012,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_id": 670770,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824479,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1974,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2199,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1975,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823913,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2025,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1834,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824399,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1994,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1809,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.44,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-14",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822777,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1646,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1799,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1647,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.38,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.09
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.185,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.5
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1974,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.44
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1646,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.38
      }
    ]
  }
}