{
  "date": "2026-08-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-15T08:05:09.175645",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 98,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 31,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824157,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2292,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2051,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 53.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824884,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2224,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1996,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824157,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2459,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2182,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824884,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2108,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2367,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2109,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824480,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2086,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2339,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2087,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823914,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2277,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2038,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824884,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2141,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1929,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.81,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823671,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2091,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823914,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1975,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1794,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-15",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 823347,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1966,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1787,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 53.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.82
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2108,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2086,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.81
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.55
      }
    ]
  }
}