{
  "date": "2026-08-17",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-17T08:04:14.559565",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 117,
    "odds_matched_count": 65,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 18,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823589,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2012,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Max Muncy",
      "hitter_name": "Max Muncy",
      "hitter_id": 571970,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824320,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2183,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1962,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.83,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824641,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2064,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1867,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823668,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2287,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2045,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823343,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2065,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1867,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.98,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824320,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 525,
      "over_odds": 525,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.243,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2159,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_id": 696100,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 824320,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1923,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1751,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Royce Lewis",
      "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis",
      "hitter_id": 668904,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823668,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2104,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1898,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
      "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin",
      "hitter_id": 686948,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823668,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 530,
      "over_odds": 530,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2175,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823343,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.189,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1723,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.66,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Max Muncy",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.83
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.98
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 525,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Royce Lewis",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.51
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 530,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.66
      }
    ]
  }
}