{
  "date": "2026-08-18",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-18T08:12:50.804457",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 95,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 824803,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2107,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2366,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2108,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 824803,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2254,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.202,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824154,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2099,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1895,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824319,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2379,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2119,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823341,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2089,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1886,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824723,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1881,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2084,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1882,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822938,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2165,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1948,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824319,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2064,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1866,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822938,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2175,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.05,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-18",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823586,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.207,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1871,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.34,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2107,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1881,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.43
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.05
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.34
      }
    ]
  }
}