{ "date": "2026-08-19", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T08:07:44.620110", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 171, "odds_matched_count": 96, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 38, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 824801, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2186, "expected_home_runs": 0.2467, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2188, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 822860, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2324, "expected_home_runs": 0.2645, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2325, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823587, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2261, "expected_home_runs": 0.2563, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2262, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823664, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2128, "expected_home_runs": 0.2393, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2129, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 823342, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2057, "expected_home_runs": 0.2303, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2058, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824318, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014, "expected_home_runs": 0.2249, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2015, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 824801, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948, "expected_home_runs": 0.2167, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.195, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.64, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "game_id": 823342, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 445, "over_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "expected_home_runs": 0.2166, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1948, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.41, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 823664, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 405, "over_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.73, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "player_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "game_id": 822860, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 425, "over_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192, "expected_home_runs": 0.2132, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2186, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.6 }, { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2324, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2261, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2128, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2057, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 49.64 }, { "player_name": "Riley Greene", "team": "DET", "opponent": "PIT", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.41 }, { "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 48.73 }, { "player_name": "Jake Burger", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "WSH", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.6 } ] } }