{
  "date": "2026-08-20",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-20T08:03:32.224064",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 81,
    "odds_matched_count": 43,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 8,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822861,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2754,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2409,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Keibert Ruiz",
      "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz",
      "hitter_id": 660688,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822861,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 880,
      "over_odds": 880,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1877,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2079,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1879,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
      "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins",
      "hitter_id": 656775,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822934,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 605,
      "over_odds": 605,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1894,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.21,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1895,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822934,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1878,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.208,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1879,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.34,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824589,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1677,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1836,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1678,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "JJ Bleday",
      "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday",
      "hitter_id": 668709,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 824474,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 650,
      "over_odds": 650,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1963,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1783,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824395,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1479,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.16,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.148,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 33.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-20",
      "player_name": "Bo Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 666310,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824395,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 620,
      "over_odds": 620,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1644,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1518,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 30.48,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2407,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Keibert Ruiz",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 880,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1877,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 605,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1894,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.82
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1878,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.34
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1677,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "JJ Bleday",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 650,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1479,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 33.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bo Naylor",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 620,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 30.48
      }
    ]
  }
}