{ "date": "2026-08-21", "generated_at": "2026-08-21T08:06:45.897628", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 207, "odds_matched_count": 108, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 38, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 823746, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "expected_home_runs": 0.2406, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.214, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 824800, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101, "expected_home_runs": 0.2359, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2103, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824317, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2463, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824152, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073, "expected_home_runs": 0.2323, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2074, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 822857, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 410, "over_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "expected_home_runs": 0.2254, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2019, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824317, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "expected_home_runs": 0.2336, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2085, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 822857, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104, "expected_home_runs": 0.2362, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2105, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 822857, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1937, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.08, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "game_id": 824317, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19, "expected_home_runs": 0.2107, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1901, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824721, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19, "expected_home_runs": 0.2107, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1901, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Matt Olson", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.6 }, { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Mike Trout", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.0 }, { "player_name": "Zach Neto", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2104, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.4 }, { "player_name": "Jo Adell", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.08 }, { "player_name": "Hunter Goodman", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CLE", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.19, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.0 } ] } }