{
  "date": "2026-08-22",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-22T08:06:59.931644",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 144,
    "odds_matched_count": 78,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 19,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823509,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2269,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2032,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824151,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2314,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2067,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824560,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2291,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2049,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823509,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2268,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.203,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824151,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1992,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1807,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823831,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2088,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 661388,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823743,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 645,
      "over_odds": 645,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2273,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2034,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823261,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.202,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.183,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.07,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824073,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1879,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1714,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.39,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-22",
      "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_id": 691406,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824798,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1809,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1656,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.72
      },
      {
        "player_name": "William Contreras",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 645,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2033,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.07
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.39
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.65
      }
    ]
  }
}