{ "date": "2026-08-23", "generated_at": "2026-08-23T08:05:12.160577", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 153, "odds_matched_count": 80, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 31, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824315, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2463, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "game_id": 822856, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2177, "expected_home_runs": 0.2455, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2178, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 824799, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029, "expected_home_runs": 0.2268, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.203, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 823258, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 435, "over_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955, "expected_home_runs": 0.2175, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1956, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.65, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 825043, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 375, "over_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1952, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.53, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 823507, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "expected_home_runs": 0.2291, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2049, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.4, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824315, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105, "expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2106, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "game_id": 822856, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.207, "expected_home_runs": 0.2319, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2071, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "James Wood", "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 823827, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 485, "over_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892, "expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.96, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "player_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823258, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "expected_home_runs": 0.1974, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1792, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.73, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jake Burger", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "LAA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2177, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.2 }, { "player_name": "Manny Machado", "team": "SD", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1955, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.65 }, { "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.53 }, { "player_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.4 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.0 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Soler", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "TEX", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.207, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.2 }, { "player_name": "James Wood", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.96 }, { "player_name": "Byron Buxton", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.73 } ] } }