{
  "date": "2026-08-24",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-24T08:04:23.573231",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 126,
    "odds_matched_count": 64,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 16,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824964,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2214,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1988,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823260,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2162,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1945,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.32,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825041,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1998,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1812,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 822695,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2247,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2013,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Nick Kurtz",
      "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz",
      "hitter_id": 701762,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824964,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 280,
      "over_odds": 280,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2324,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2075,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823097,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1718,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1885,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1719,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.74,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 671277,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 822695,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 675,
      "over_odds": 675,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1797,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1981,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1799,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 824557,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1644,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1796,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1645,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823097,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1998,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1812,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-24",
      "player_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
      "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
      "hitter_id": 680777,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824964,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 675,
      "over_odds": 675,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1794,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1977,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1795,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.32
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "CJ Abrams",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Nick Kurtz",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 280,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1718,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.74
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 675,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1797,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 38.91
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1644,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 675,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1794,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.82
      }
    ]
  }
}