{
  "date": "2026-08-26",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-26T08:03:24.498201",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 97,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823015,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2289,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2048,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824555,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2328,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2078,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823584,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 824234,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2143,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.193,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner",
      "hitter_id": 670242,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824963,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2132,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824878,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2132,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824555,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2057,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2303,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2059,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Bell",
      "hitter_id": 605137,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824963,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2029,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Max Muncy",
      "hitter_name": "Max Muncy",
      "hitter_id": 571970,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824878,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1764,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.89,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824555,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 570,
      "over_odds": 570,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2163,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1946,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2046,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Wallner",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2057,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Bell",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Max Muncy",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.89
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 570,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.35
      }
    ]
  }
}