{
  "date": "2026-08-27",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-27T08:02:39.751159",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 90,
    "odds_matched_count": 43,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 16,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822771,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2195,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.13,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 823503,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2174,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1955,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 822771,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824879,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2068,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1869,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824879,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 823503,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.177,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1948,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1771,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_id": 678662,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822694,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 670,
      "over_odds": 670,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2209,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2496,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.221,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle",
      "hitter_id": 686668,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822694,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 705,
      "over_odds": 705,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2322,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Edouard Julien",
      "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien",
      "hitter_id": 666397,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822694,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 790,
      "over_odds": 790,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824879,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1732,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1902,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1733,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.96,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.13
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.04
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.177,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 670,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2209,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brenton Doyle",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 705,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Edouard Julien",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 790,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1732,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.96
      }
    ]
  }
}