{ "date": "2026-08-28", "generated_at": "2026-08-28T08:02:34.173397", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 126, "odds_matched_count": 70, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 16, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 823583, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 420, "over_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1945, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.32, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824960, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913, "expected_home_runs": 0.2123, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1914, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 48.39, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "game_id": 823666, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 405, "over_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1776, "expected_home_runs": 0.1955, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1777, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.28, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824877, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024, "expected_home_runs": 0.2261, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2025, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 823583, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1747, "expected_home_runs": 0.192, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1749, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.81, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824877, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884, "expected_home_runs": 0.2088, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1885, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.52, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824960, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 585, "over_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832, "expected_home_runs": 0.2023, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1833, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 38.96, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824877, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 530, "over_odds": 530, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1978, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1796, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 38.45, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824638, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 640, "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1845, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1686, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 34.55, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team": "TB", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 822935, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 655, "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1657, "expected_home_runs": 0.1812, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1658, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 33.71, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Francisco Lindor", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 420, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.32 }, { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 48.39 }, { "player_name": "Matt Wallner", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CWS", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 405, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1776, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.28 }, { "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Polanco", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1747, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 40.81 }, { "player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1884, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 40.52 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 38.96 }, { "player_name": "Drake Baldwin", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 530, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 38.45 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1685, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 34.55 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "team": "TB", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1657, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 33.71 } ] } }