{
  "date": "2026-08-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-30T08:03:21.679564",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 104,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824393,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2238,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2534,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2239,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824636,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2417,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2148,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823740,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2127,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2391,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2128,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 824232,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2286,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2045,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823987,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2195,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.13,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823662,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.217,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1952,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.77,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822933,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2091,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1888,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts",
      "hitter_id": 605141,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824232,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2314,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2068,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822766,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2412,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2144,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-30",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 822766,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2192,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1969,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.44,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2238,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2127,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1971,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.13
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.77
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1887,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mookie Betts",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2066,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.44
      }
    ]
  }
}