{
  "date": "2026-08-31",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-31T08:02:19.177720",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 108,
    "odds_matched_count": 60,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 22,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824911,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2106,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2365,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2108,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824314,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2318,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2071,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 825040,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2353,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2098,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 825040,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2023,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.226,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2024,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822855,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2172,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1954,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 824473,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.216,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1944,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.29,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824473,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2222,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1993,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.96,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
      "hitter_id": 642715,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824911,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2081,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.188,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.37,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_id": 664023,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824635,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2417,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2149,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_id": 592206,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824473,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 575,
      "over_odds": 575,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2269,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2032,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2106,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2023,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.29
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.96
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Willy Adames",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.37
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ian Happ",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 575,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      }
    ]
  }
}