{
  "date": "2026-09-01",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-01T08:02:54.024250",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 96,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824148,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.208,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2332,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2082,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 822929,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2296,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2053,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824391,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2257,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2558,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2258,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 822687,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2125,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2389,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2126,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822687,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2274,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2035,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824148,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1924,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2137,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1925,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.96,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825038,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2019,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.183,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.84,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823908,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2167,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1949,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.84,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 661388,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824633,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 645,
      "over_odds": 645,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2287,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2046,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824633,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2141,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1929,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.208,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2257,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2125,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1924,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.96
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.84
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.84
      },
      {
        "player_name": "William Contreras",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 645,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.21
      }
    ]
  }
}