{ "date": "2026-09-02", "generated_at": "2026-09-02T08:03:36.140012", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 171, "odds_matched_count": 92, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 30, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team": "CLE", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 824390, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "expected_home_runs": 0.2426, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2155, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824312, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 345, "over_odds": 345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2242, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.41, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team": "TEX", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 822851, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 370, "over_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937, "expected_home_runs": 0.2153, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.11, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 824068, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 475, "over_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2112, "expected_home_runs": 0.2373, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2114, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 824470, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 655, "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2349, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team": "WSH", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 822686, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 590, "over_odds": 590, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2263, "expected_home_runs": 0.2566, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2264, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824312, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 710, "over_odds": 710, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185, "expected_home_runs": 0.2466, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2186, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 824470, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 600, "over_odds": 600, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2183, "expected_home_runs": 0.2463, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2184, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 824470, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 650, "over_odds": 650, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "expected_home_runs": 0.2244, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2011, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824312, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 645, "over_odds": 645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2007, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Pete Alonso", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.41 }, { "player_name": "Corey Seager", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 370, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.11 }, { "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team": "KC", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 475, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2112, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 50.0 }, { "player_name": "TJ Friedl", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "CJ Abrams", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 590, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2263, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Adley Rutschman", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 710, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Spencer Steer", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 600, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2183, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "JJ Bleday", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 650, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }