{
  "date": "2026-09-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-03T08:02:31.252253",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 90,
    "odds_matched_count": 42,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 11,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824069,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2337,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2085,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824388,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2192,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.197,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824144,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2116,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1909,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.81,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824069,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2132,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1922,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824388,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2067,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1868,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_id": 643217,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824144,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 640,
      "over_odds": 640,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2166,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1949,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_id": 660821,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824388,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 685,
      "over_odds": 685,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2093,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1889,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.64,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822853,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2045,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.185,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 682663,
      "team": "MIA",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824069,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 590,
      "over_odds": 590,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1935,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.176,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.77,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "player_name": "Brice Turang",
      "hitter_name": "Brice Turang",
      "hitter_id": 668930,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824632,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 865,
      "over_odds": 865,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1455,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1355,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 24.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Solid enough base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2084,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.04
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1907,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.81
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 640,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 685,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.64
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "MIA",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 590,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 36.77
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brice Turang",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 865,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 24.62
      }
    ]
  }
}