{
  "date": "2026-09-04",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-04T08:03:35.730738",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 189,
    "odds_matched_count": 101,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 27,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824146,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2249,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2016,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824424,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2412,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2144,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824797,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2213,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1987,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823093,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1791,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_id": 467793,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824146,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 610,
      "over_odds": 610,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2188,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1967,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran",
      "hitter_id": 680776,
      "team": "BOS",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824797,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 715,
      "over_odds": 715,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2209,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824797,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1914,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1743,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.26,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822852,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2143,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1931,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
      "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins",
      "hitter_id": 656775,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822852,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 605,
      "over_odds": 605,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2174,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1955,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824424,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1966,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1786,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 610,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jarren Duran",
        "team": "BOS",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 715,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.26
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 42.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 605,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.55
      }
    ]
  }
}