{
  "date": "2026-09-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-05T23:49:54.660594",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 207,
    "odds_matched_count": 113,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 31,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824145,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1995,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 824795,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1991,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.27,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823257,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2259,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2023,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823419,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2173,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1954,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.59,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824066,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2222,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2513,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2223,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824389,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2025,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1835,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823904,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2157,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1942,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823904,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2033,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1841,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824066,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1904,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2112,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1905,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-05",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823094,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2016,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1827,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.27
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2022,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.59
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2222,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1833,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1904,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.78
      }
    ]
  }
}