{
  "date": "2026-09-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-06T23:48:03.430995",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 144,
    "odds_matched_count": 76,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 22,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823417,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.224,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2008,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824385,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2143,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.193,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_id": 691406,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822848,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2096,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1893,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.14,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824469,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2169,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1952,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.7,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823253,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2133,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1922,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.03,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824142,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2056,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1859,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.74,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822848,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2235,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.253,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2237,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823417,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2032,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.184,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.97,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824142,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2133,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1922,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.23,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823417,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2265,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2028,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.14
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.7
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.03
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.74
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2235,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.97
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.23
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}