{
  "date": "2026-09-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-07T08:02:36.041070",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 117,
    "odds_matched_count": 58,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 18,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824958,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2204,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.34,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823820,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2113,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2374,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2114,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824793,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824793,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2213,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1987,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 823415,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.22,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1976,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.05,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824958,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1974,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2199,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1975,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill",
      "hitter_id": 701538,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823254,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 520,
      "over_odds": 520,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2221,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1993,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824793,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1752,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1926,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1753,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_id": 592206,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 823254,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 575,
      "over_odds": 575,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2151,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1936,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.05,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823415,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2132,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1921,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.34
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2113,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.05
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1974,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 520,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1752,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 575,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1935,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.05
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.6
      }
    ]
  }
}