{ "date": "2026-09-09", "generated_at": "2026-09-09T23:48:21.758223", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 82, "odds_matched_count": 67, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 18, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823416, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 360, "over_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "expected_home_runs": 0.2292, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.205, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823497, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 400, "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2433, "expected_home_runs": 0.2788, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2434, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 824226, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139, "expected_home_runs": 0.2407, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.214, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823497, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 640, "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.239, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team": "NYY", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823497, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 635, "over_odds": 635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "expected_home_runs": 0.267, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2344, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Brooks Lee", "hitter_name": "Brooks Lee", "hitter_id": 686797, "team": "MIN", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 824226, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 635, "over_odds": 635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2112, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team": "DET", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "game_id": 824226, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 695, "over_odds": 695, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993, "expected_home_runs": 0.2223, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1994, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.79, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Michael Massey", "hitter_name": "Michael Massey", "hitter_id": 686681, "team": "KC", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 824064, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 685, "over_odds": 685, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937, "expected_home_runs": 0.2153, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1939, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 43.11, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "game_id": 823416, "lineup_slot": 7, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 470, "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "expected_home_runs": 0.1968, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1787, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.98, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823900, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 545, "over_odds": 545, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899, "expected_home_runs": 0.2106, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.19, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.97, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2048, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Ben Rice", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2433, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Brooks Lee", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Dillon Dingler", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MIN", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 695, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 43.79 }, { "player_name": "Michael Massey", "team": "KC", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 685, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 43.11 }, { "player_name": "Daulton Varsho", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "PHI", "lineup_slot": 7, "hr_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.98 }, { "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 545, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 40.97 } ] } }