{
  "date": "2026-09-10",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-10T23:41:01.237945",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 72,
    "odds_matched_count": 41,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 12,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823413,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2297,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2054,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823499,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2068,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2317,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.207,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero",
      "hitter_id": 691406,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824872,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2138,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1927,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823499,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2086,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.49,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824872,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2562,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2262,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823088,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1985,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1801,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "game_id": 824872,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2295,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2052,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
      "hitter_id": 656941,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 823413,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 280,
      "over_odds": 280,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2417,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2149,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.76,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 823088,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1703,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1867,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1704,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.29,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "player_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a",
      "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a",
      "hitter_id": 665161,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 823413,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 765,
      "over_odds": 765,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.179,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2052,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2068,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Junior Caminero",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.49
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "TB",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 280,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 43.76
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1703,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.29
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 765,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.67
      }
    ]
  }
}