{ "date": "2026-09-11", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T08:03:18.011361", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 180, "odds_matched_count": 103, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 40, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 824954, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2074, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 52.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824631, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 360, "over_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2224, "expected_home_runs": 0.2515, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2225, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 823817, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 430, "over_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007, "expected_home_runs": 0.224, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2008, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 822767, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202, "expected_home_runs": 0.2256, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2021, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "game_id": 824873, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871, "expected_home_runs": 0.2072, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1872, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.13, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "game_id": 822930, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849, "expected_home_runs": 0.2044, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.185, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.47, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 822767, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1798, "expected_home_runs": 0.1982, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1799, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.14, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823498, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 695, "over_odds": 695, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "expected_home_runs": 0.2336, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2084, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "game_id": 824631, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "expected_home_runs": 0.2306, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.206, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "player_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "game_id": 823498, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 605, "over_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2032, "expected_home_runs": 0.2271, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2033, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 52.0 }, { "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 360, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2224, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ATL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.13 }, { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "TB", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 46.47 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1798, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.14 }, { "player_name": "Bo Bichette", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 695, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2083, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CHC", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Semien", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "NYY", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2032, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 } ] } }