Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Royce Lewis

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
OUT · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
Model 15.1% Market 15.2% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
54 +21 vs proj
Barrel%7.0%
74
Bat speed71.1
72
Exit velocity88.0
44
Hard-hit%38.4%
43
K%28.9%
18 -32 vs proj
xBA0.312
37
xSLG0.493
44
xwOBA0.283
26 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
68
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
16
Range Runs-1.7 · 3B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 3B
50
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.357
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)