Mithrandir Metrics
2026 season 402 hitters
Analytics / Projections · 2026 season

Live analytics, projection deltas, and October shape.

Current-season leaderboards sit beside preseason projections so the page can show what is happening now and how far it has moved from the original model.

Hitters
402
Pitchers
378
Teams
30
Live cache 2026-09-04 Projection build 2026-09-04 Regression rows 884
Live state / actual vs projected

Current leaders and projection misses

Open leaderboards
TeamPaceProjDelta
TBAmerican League East 96.0 73.0 +23.0
MILNational League Central 100.0 82.8 +17.2
CWSAmerican League Central 84.5 67.5 +17.0
STLNational League Central 80.4 70.2 +10.2
MIANational League East 81.6 71.6 +10.0
RegressionSurfaceUnderGap
Urquidy, JoséCWS / positive 0.485 0.270 +0.216
Wiemer, JoeyWSH / negative 0.508 0.315 -0.193
Barrosa, JorgeAZ / negative 0.389 0.235 -0.154
Waldron, MattSD / positive 0.430 0.292 +0.138
Banks, TannerPHI / positive 0.462 0.323 +0.139
Current build

2026 season intelligence

Open standings

The projection stack starts at player-season components, propagates uncertainty into team outcomes, and exposes the same build through leaderboards, awards, standings, and accountability views.

hr_9 offset correction applied, with known overshoot risk in 2021-2025 pitcher calibration windows. If current MLB roster lookup is unavailable, the pipeline falls back to each player's latest historical team.
Top hitter xwOBA
0.443
Soto, Juan
Top pitcher K%
38.1%
Miller, Mason
01 / Teams Standings + playoff odds

Projected records, division races, October odds, and team-level context.

30 teams → 02 / Players Hitter + pitcher forecasts

Calibrated player-season forecasts with intervals, archetypes, and profile links.

780 players → 03 / Awards Awards + leaders

MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and projected stat leaderboards.

6 award boards → 04 / Accountability Scorecard

Live comparison of preseason projections against actual results once data arrives.

2026-09-04 →
Preview tables
Preseason projection

Top preseason clubs

See all
ClubWDiv%Playoff%
NYY American League East 94.7 68.7% 91.7%
LAD National League West 91.6 59.7% 83.6%
NYM National League East 90.8 41.3% 80.3%
ATL National League East 89.3 34.9% 77.4%
PHI National League East 87.7 23.0% 66.8%
Preseason Monte Carlo season simulator · 2026-09-04T11:47:10.504580+00:00
Rolling projection

Top live clubs

See all
ClubRoll WPaceMove
MIL National League Central 94.9 100.0 +11.9
LAD National League West 94.8 96.0 +2.8
ATL National League East 93.9 96.0 +4.9
NYY American League East 93.3 92.6 -1.7
PHI National League East 90.4 91.4 +2.4
Bayesian rolling projection · 2026-09-04
Award model leaders · Live Market

Live market awards

See all
AwardLeaderLive Market %
Current sportsbook consensus from 20260904.
Leaderboards

Projected HR leaders

Open leaders
#PlayerLgP50P10-P90Lead%
1 Judge, AaronNYY AL 45.7 45.7-45.7 57.1%
2 Raleigh, CalSEA AL 42.5 42.5-42.5 35.8%
3 Alonso, PeteBAL AL 33.0 33.0-33.0 2.9%
1 Schwarber, KylePHI NL 41.2 41.2-41.2 59.6%
2 Suárez, EugenioCIN NL 34.8 34.8-34.8 17.1%
3 Soto, JuanNYM NL 33.6 33.6-33.6 11.9%
Intervals shown as p10-p90. Single-number rows indicate deterministic point-only inputs.
Player projection layer
Hitter projections 2026

Calibrated hitter leaderboard

HitterTeamAgeArchetypexwOBARangePAHR
Soto, JuanMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYM 28 Impact slugger 0.443 +/- 0.048 649 34
Guerrero Jr., VladimirMiddle-order power profile with real damage TOR 27 Impact slugger 0.393 +/- 0.044 666 27
Alvarez, YordanMiddle-order power profile with real damage HOU 29 Impact slugger 0.392 +/- 0.052 371 18
Acuña Jr., RonaldMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 29 Impact slugger 0.381 +/- 0.042 430 19
Witt Jr., BobbyImpact bat with above-average thump KC 26 Balanced regular 0.380 +/- 0.048 630 25
Schwarber, KyleMiddle-order power profile with real damage PHI 33 Impact slugger 0.380 +/- 0.058 658 41
Seager, CoreyMiddle-order power profile with real damage TEX 32 Impact slugger 0.374 +/- 0.051 484 25
Tucker, KyleMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAD 29 Impact slugger 0.374 +/- 0.045 555 24
Merrill, JacksonEveryday offensive profile with usable floor SD 23 Balanced regular 0.371 +/- 0.042 519 19
Henderson, GunnarImpact bat with above-average thump BAL 25 Balanced regular 0.369 +/- 0.053 600 24
Tatis Jr., FernandoOn-base driven regular with stable floor SD 27 Balanced regular 0.367 +/- 0.040 608 24
Wood, JamesImpact bat with above-average thump WSH 24 Balanced regular 0.367 +/- 0.055 592 23
Alonso, PeteMiddle-order power profile with real damage BAL 32 Impact slugger 0.364 +/- 0.056 648 33
Devers, RafaelMiddle-order power profile with real damage SF 30 Impact slugger 0.364 +/- 0.046 636 29
Rice, BenMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 27 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.040 511 23
Olson, MattMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 32 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.054 645 31
Freeman, FreddieOn-base driven regular with stable floor LAD 37 Balanced regular 0.362 +/- 0.047 628 23
Marte, KetelMiddle-order power profile with real damage AZ 33 Impact slugger 0.360 +/- 0.046 549 26
Harper, BryceOn-base driven regular with stable floor PHI 34 Balanced regular 0.358 +/- 0.047 574 25
Carroll, CorbinYoung power bat with breakout ceiling AZ 26 Impact slugger 0.357 +/- 0.047 605 23
Greene, RileyImpact bat with above-average thump DET 26 Balanced regular 0.356 +/- 0.041 622 27
Lindor, FranciscoVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach NYM 33 Balanced regular 0.355 +/- 0.052 658 27
Raleigh, CalMiddle-order power profile with real damage SEA 30 Impact slugger 0.355 +/- 0.048 658 43
Busch, MichaelMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 29 Impact slugger 0.353 +/- 0.032 574 27
Anthony, RomanYoung power bat with breakout ceiling BOS 22 Impact slugger 0.353 +/- 0.052 363 10
Rodríguez, JulioEveryday offensive profile with usable floor SEA 26 Balanced regular 0.352 +/- 0.044 655 27
Betts, MookieOn-base driven regular with stable floor LAD 34 Balanced regular 0.352 +/- 0.052 635 24
Herrera, IvánEveryday offensive profile with usable floor STL 26 Balanced regular 0.351 +/- 0.029 462 15
Contreras, WilliamOn-base driven regular with stable floor MIL 29 Balanced regular 0.348 +/- 0.046 627 19
Aranda, JonathanMiddle-order power profile with real damage TB 28 Impact slugger 0.348 +/- 0.034 437 14
Díaz, YandyVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach TB 35 Balanced regular 0.348 +/- 0.036 600 20
Smith, WillMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAD 31 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.046 517 19
Nootbaar, LarsMiddle-order power profile with real damage AZ 29 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.033 543 15
Suzuki, SeiyaMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 32 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.045 605 27
Jensen, CarterYoung power bat with breakout ceiling KC 23 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.064 236 8
Caminero, JuniorEveryday offensive profile with usable floor TB 23 Balanced regular 0.345 +/- 0.033 554 31
Muncy, MaxMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAD 36 Impact slugger 0.344 +/- 0.053 468 23
Trout, MikeMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAA 35 Impact slugger 0.344 +/- 0.047 508 23
Riley, AustinMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 29 Impact slugger 0.343 +/- 0.043 484 20
Kirk, AlejandroEveryday offensive profile with usable floor TOR 28 Balanced regular 0.343 +/- 0.031 542 14
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Player pages carry full component cards and narrative bullets.
Pitcher projections 2026

Calibrated pitcher leaderboard

PitcherTeamAgeRoleArchetypeK%RangeIPERA
Miller, MasonHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SD 28 RP Balanced reliever 2 38.1% +/- 8.2% 42.4 3.22
Chapman, AroldisHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss BOS 38 RP Balanced reliever 34.2% +/- 7.9% 42.6 3.25
Martinez, JustinHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss AZ 25 RP Offspeed mix artist 32.0% +/- 8.3% 37.3 3.05
Hader, JoshHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 32 RP Balanced reliever 31.7% +/- 7.3% 42.1 3.52
Abreu, BryanHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 31.0% +/- 7.8% 44.7 3.22
Burns, ChaseRun-prevention profile built on workable command CIN 23 mixed Balanced reliever 30.4% +/- 7.1% 70.4 3.92
Sabrowski, ErikHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss CLE 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 30.0% +/- 7.6% 35.3 3.49
Taylor, GrantLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape CWS 24 mixed Balanced reliever 2 29.9% +/- 6.4% 69.4 3.70
Montgomery, MasonHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss PIT 26 RP Balanced reliever 2 29.5% +/- 8.1% 36.7 4.03
Smith, CadeHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss CLE 27 RP Offspeed mix artist 29.3% +/- 8.8% 45.4 3.45
Jax, GriffinRun-prevention profile built on workable command TB 32 mixed Balanced reliever 29.2% +/- 7.8% 72.1 3.43
Misiorowski, JacobBreaking-ball driven starter profile MIL 24 mixed Breaking-ball attack 29.0% +/- 5.9% 73.6 3.51
Skubal, TarikBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape LAD 30 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.7% +/- 6.9% 151.7 2.96
Snell, BlakeBreaking-ball driven starter profile LAD 34 mixed Breaking-ball attack 28.5% +/- 6.3% 76.2 3.40
Muñoz, AndrésHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SEA 27 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.3% +/- 7.8% 43.2 2.79
Speier, GabeHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SEA 31 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.2% +/- 7.8% 40.5 3.30
Detmers, ReidHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss LAA 27 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.0% +/- 6.9% 48.7 4.36
Cease, DylanBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape TOR 31 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.0% +/- 5.3% 150.5 3.76
Vesia, AlexRun-prevention profile built on workable command LAD 30 RP Balanced reliever 28.0% +/- 8.0% 42.6 3.37
Ohtani, ShoheiBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape LAD 32 SP Breaking-ball attack 27.8% +/- 6.7% 143.1 3.33
Whitlock, GarrettRun-prevention profile built on workable command BOS 30 RP Balanced reliever 27.8% +/- 7.8% 41.6 3.61
Hoffman, JeffRun-prevention profile built on workable command MIN 33 RP Offspeed mix artist 27.6% +/- 8.7% 44.5 3.19
Lee, DylanRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATL 32 RP Balanced reliever 27.5% +/- 7.3% 41.8 3.33
Cleavinger, GarrettLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape TB 32 RP Balanced reliever 2 27.5% +/- 7.2% 40.7 3.45
Wheeler, ZackBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape PHI 36 SP Breaking-ball attack 27.5% +/- 5.1% 150.7 3.23
Sale, ChrisBreaking-ball driven starter profile ATL 37 mixed Breaking-ball attack 27.4% +/- 5.8% 79.1 3.25
Núñez, DednielLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape NYM 30 RP Balanced reliever 2 27.3% +/- 8.3% 34.6 3.69
Baker, BryanRun-prevention profile built on workable command TB 32 RP Offspeed mix artist 27.2% +/- 7.9% 40.0 3.82
Glasnow, TylerBreaking-ball driven starter profile LAD 33 mixed Breaking-ball attack 27.0% +/- 6.2% 77.3 3.31
Uribe, AbnerLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape MIL 26 RP Balanced reliever 2 27.0% +/- 7.2% 40.6 3.08
Bednar, DavidRun-prevention profile built on workable command NYY 32 RP Balanced reliever 26.9% +/- 7.9% 43.1 3.18
Headrick, BrentRun-prevention profile built on workable command NYY 29 mixed Offspeed mix artist 26.9% +/- 5.2% 62.2 3.60
Bradish, KyleLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape BAL 30 mixed Balanced reliever 2 26.9% +/- 5.8% 70.0 3.42
Beeter, ClaytonLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape WSH 28 RP Balanced reliever 2 26.8% +/- 7.0% 34.6 3.95
Duran, JhoanLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape PHI 28 RP Balanced reliever 2 26.8% +/- 8.1% 43.6 3.35
Skenes, PaulBreaking-ball driven starter profile PIT 24 SP Breaking-ball attack 26.8% +/- 5.7% 150.1 3.13
Megill, TrevorLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape MIL 33 mixed Balanced reliever 2 26.7% +/- 7.0% 68.1 3.27
Kimbrel, CraigRun-prevention profile built on workable command KC 38 RP Volatile contact 26.7% +/- 7.3% 37.2 3.63
Gilbert, LoganBreaking-ball driven starter profile SEA 29 mixed Breaking-ball attack 26.6% +/- 5.9% 82.6 3.47
Domínguez, SeranthonyRun-prevention profile built on workable command SEA 32 RP Volatile contact 26.6% +/- 7.5% 43.3 3.60
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Pitcher cards carry arsenal, role, and split context.
Legacy projection boards
Season Outlook Team Season Projections

Projected wins, losses, win percentage, runs scored, and runs allowed from the saved Marcel-style team artifact.

2026 season / 30 teams → Season Outlook Pitcher Season Projections

Starter-only season projections for starts, innings, strikeouts, K/9, WHIP, and ERA from the saved artifact.

2026 season / 210 pitchers → Season Outlook Hitter Season Projections

Projected plate appearances, home runs, stolen bases, and slash-line production from the saved hitter artifact.

2026 season / 422 hitters → Daily Board Daily Pitcher Strikeout Projections

The current daily starter strikeout board with matchup context and supporting model features.

2026-09-04 slate / 32 starters → Daily Board Strikeout Props

Baseline and matchup-adjusted strikeout projections with threshold probabilities from the saved props artifact.

2026-09-04 slate / 21 starters →