Mithrandir Metrics
2026 season 152 hitters
Analytics / Projections · 2026 season

Live analytics, projection deltas, and October shape.

Current-season leaderboards sit beside preseason projections so the page can show what is happening now and how far it has moved from the original model.

Hitters
152
Pitchers
159
Teams
30
Live cache 2026-10-20 Projection build 2026-10-20 Regression rows 950
Live state / actual vs projected

Current leaders and projection misses

Open leaderboards
TeamPaceProjDelta
TBAmerican League East 98.0 73.0 +25.0
MILNational League Central 103.0 82.8 +20.2
CWSAmerican League Central 84.0 67.5 +16.5
MIANational League East 80.0 71.6 +8.4
LADNational League West 100.0 91.6 +8.4
RegressionSurfaceUnderGap
Wiemer, JoeyWSH / negative 0.508 0.315 -0.193
Urquidy, JoséCWS / positive 0.440 0.286 +0.154
Waldron, MattSD / positive 0.430 0.291 +0.139
Barrosa, JorgeAZ / negative 0.377 0.238 -0.139
Lockridge, BrandonMIL / negative 0.400 0.258 -0.142
Current build

2026 season intelligence

Open standings

The projection stack starts at player-season components, propagates uncertainty into team outcomes, and exposes the same build through leaderboards, awards, standings, and accountability views.

hr_9 offset correction applied, with known overshoot risk in 2021-2025 pitcher calibration windows. If current MLB roster lookup is unavailable, the pipeline falls back to each player's latest historical team.
Top hitter xwOBA
0.468
Judge, Aaron
Top pitcher K%
31.7%
Hader, Josh
01 / Teams Standings + playoff odds

Projected records, division races, October odds, and team-level context.

30 teams → 02 / Players Hitter + pitcher forecasts

Calibrated player-season forecasts with intervals, archetypes, and profile links.

311 players → 03 / Awards Awards + leaders

MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and projected stat leaderboards.

6 award boards → 04 / Accountability Scorecard

Live comparison of preseason projections against actual results once data arrives.

2026-10-20 →
Preview tables
Preseason projection

Top preseason clubs

See all
ClubWDiv%Playoff%
NYY American League East 94.7 68.7% 91.7%
LAD National League West 91.6 59.7% 83.6%
NYM National League East 90.8 41.3% 80.3%
ATL National League East 89.3 34.9% 77.4%
PHI National League East 87.7 23.0% 66.8%
Preseason Monte Carlo season simulator · 2026-10-20T11:50:28.634887+00:00
Rolling projection

Top live clubs

See all
ClubRoll WPaceMove
LAD National League West 97.8 100.0 +5.8
MIL National League Central 97.6 103.0 +14.6
NYY American League East 94.0 93.6 -1.0
ATL National League East 92.6 94.0 +3.6
TB American League East 91.2 98.0 +18.2
Bayesian rolling projection · 2026-10-20
Award model leaders · Live Market

Live market awards

See all
AwardLeaderLive Market %
Current sportsbook consensus from 20261020.
Leaderboards

Projected HR leaders

Open leaders
#PlayerLgP50P10-P90Lead%
1 Judge, AaronNYY AL 45.7 45.7-45.7 57.1%
2 Raleigh, CalSEA AL 42.5 42.5-42.5 35.8%
3 Alonso, PeteBAL AL 33.0 33.0-33.0 2.9%
1 Schwarber, KylePHI NL 41.2 41.2-41.2 59.6%
2 Suárez, EugenioCIN NL 34.8 34.8-34.8 17.1%
3 Soto, JuanNYM NL 33.6 33.6-33.6 11.9%
Intervals shown as p10-p90. Single-number rows indicate deterministic point-only inputs.
Player projection layer
Hitter projections 2026

Calibrated hitter leaderboard

HitterTeamAgeArchetypexwOBARangePAHR
Judge, AaronMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 34 Impact slugger 0.468 +/- 0.052 643 46
Guerrero Jr., VladimirMiddle-order power profile with real damage TOR 27 Impact slugger 0.393 +/- 0.044 666 27
Alvarez, YordanMiddle-order power profile with real damage HOU 29 Impact slugger 0.392 +/- 0.052 371 18
Acuña Jr., RonaldMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 29 Impact slugger 0.381 +/- 0.042 430 19
Rooker, BrentImpact bat with above-average thump ATH 32 Balanced regular 0.364 +/- 0.044 621 32
Rice, BenMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 27 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.040 511 23
Olson, MattMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 32 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.054 645 31
Kurtz, NickYoung power bat with breakout ceiling ATH 23 Impact slugger 0.357 +/- 0.043 447 28
Busch, MichaelMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 29 Impact slugger 0.353 +/- 0.032 574 27
Suzuki, SeiyaMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 32 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.045 605 27
Riley, AustinMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 29 Impact slugger 0.343 +/- 0.043 484 20
Kirk, AlejandroEveryday offensive profile with usable floor TOR 28 Balanced regular 0.343 +/- 0.031 542 15
Happ, IanMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 32 Impact slugger 0.343 +/- 0.048 620 21
O'Hearn, RyanVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach PIT 33 Balanced regular 0.341 +/- 0.035 539 17
Lowe, BrandonVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach PIT 32 Balanced regular 0.340 +/- 0.037 533 26
Grisham, TrentMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 30 Impact slugger 0.339 +/- 0.039 539 24
Harris II, MichaelEveryday offensive profile with usable floor ATL 25 Balanced regular 0.338 +/- 0.035 582 19
Wade Jr., LaMonteOn-base driven regular with stable floor HOU 32 Balanced regular 0.338 +/- 0.050 374 9
Reynolds, BryanVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach PIT 31 Balanced regular 0.337 +/- 0.047 606 19
Buxton, ByronMiddle-order power profile with real damage MIN 33 Impact slugger 0.337 +/- 0.033 521 27
Springer, GeorgeMiddle-order power profile with real damage TOR 37 Impact slugger 0.335 +/- 0.047 605 24
Wallner, MattMiddle-order power profile with real damage MIN 29 Impact slugger 0.335 +/- 0.047 435 22
Baldwin, DrakeEveryday offensive profile with usable floor ATL 25 Balanced regular 0.334 +/- 0.041 436 17
Cruz, OneilOn-base driven regular with stable floor PIT 28 Balanced regular 0.334 +/- 0.038 541 19
Diaz, YainerEveryday offensive profile with usable floor HOU 28 Balanced regular 0.333 +/- 0.037 556 20
Bell, JoshOn-base driven regular with stable floor MIN 34 Balanced regular 0.333 +/- 0.043 544 19
Ramos, HeliotEveryday offensive profile with usable floor NYY 27 Balanced regular 0.332 +/- 0.032 612 23
Larnach, TrevorEveryday offensive profile with usable floor MIN 29 Balanced regular 0.332 +/- 0.032 534 19
Correa, CarlosVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach HOU 32 Balanced regular 0.331 +/- 0.037 543 16
Swanson, DansbyVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach CHC 32 Balanced regular 0.331 +/- 0.048 602 20
Soderstrom, TylerEveryday offensive profile with usable floor ATH 25 Balanced regular 0.330 +/- 0.034 544 21
Gray, TristanMiddle-order power profile with real damage MIN 30 Impact slugger 0.330 +/- 0.083 256 9
Goldschmidt, PaulVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach NYY 39 Balanced regular 0.330 +/- 0.046 547 16
Walker, ChristianVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach HOU 35 Balanced regular 0.330 +/- 0.048 577 25
García Jr., LuisEveryday offensive profile with usable floor NYY 26 Balanced regular 0.329 +/- 0.030 530 17
Conforto, MichaelVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach CHC 33 Balanced regular 0.328 +/- 0.041 499 16
Bregman, AlexVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach CHC 32 Balanced regular 0.327 +/- 0.035 533 20
Stanton, GiancarloMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 37 Impact slugger 0.327 +/- 0.047 410 25
Chisholm Jr., JazzEveryday offensive profile with usable floor NYY 28 Balanced regular 0.326 +/- 0.043 558 27
Escarra, J.c.Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach NYY 31 Balanced regular 0.325 +/- 0.052 261 8
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Player pages carry full component cards and narrative bullets.
Pitcher projections 2026

Calibrated pitcher leaderboard

PitcherTeamAgeRoleArchetypeK%RangeIPERA
Hader, JoshHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 32 RP Balanced reliever 31.7% +/- 7.3% 40.5 3.52
Abreu, BryanHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 31.0% +/- 7.8% 43.1 3.22
Yesavage, TreyRun-prevention profile built on workable command TOR 23 mixed Offspeed mix artist 30.0% +/- 6.1% 69.0 3.77
Montgomery, MasonHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss PIT 26 RP Balanced reliever 2 29.5% +/- 8.1% 35.1 4.03
Cease, DylanBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape TOR 31 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.1% +/- 6.1% 145.4 3.76
Hoffman, JeffRun-prevention profile built on workable command MIN 33 RP Offspeed mix artist 27.6% +/- 8.7% 42.9 3.19
Lee, DylanRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATL 32 RP Balanced reliever 27.5% +/- 7.3% 40.2 3.33
Sale, ChrisBreaking-ball driven starter profile ATL 37 mixed Breaking-ball attack 27.4% +/- 5.8% 78.2 3.25
Yates, KirbyRun-prevention profile built on workable command PIT 39 RP Offspeed mix artist 27.1% +/- 7.5% 38.9 4.03
Headrick, BrentRun-prevention profile built on workable command NYY 29 mixed Offspeed mix artist 26.9% +/- 5.2% 61.3 3.60
Bednar, DavidRun-prevention profile built on workable command NYY 32 RP Balanced reliever 26.9% +/- 7.9% 41.5 3.18
Skenes, PaulBreaking-ball driven starter profile PIT 24 SP Breaking-ball attack 26.8% +/- 6.6% 144.8 3.13
Brown, HunterBreaking-ball driven starter profile HOU 28 SP Breaking-ball attack 26.5% +/- 4.9% 146.3 3.26
López, ReynaldoRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATL 32 mixed Volatile contact 26.5% +/- 6.8% 69.9 3.00
Sousa, BennettLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape HOU 31 RP Balanced reliever 2 26.4% +/- 7.6% 34.3 3.53
Fisher, BraydonLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape TOR 26 mixed Balanced reliever 2 26.3% +/- 5.5% 70.5 3.79
Okert, StevenLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape HOU 35 mixed Balanced reliever 2 26.2% +/- 5.7% 69.4 3.78
Fluharty, MasonLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape TOR 25 RP Balanced reliever 2 26.0% +/- 7.1% 35.8 4.00
Zeferjahn, RyanLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape CHC 28 mixed Balanced reliever 2 26.0% +/- 6.4% 67.6 4.07
Alvarado, ElvisRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATH 27 RP Balanced reliever 25.8% +/- 7.4% 34.2 3.93
Young, DannyLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape ATL 32 RP Balanced reliever 2 25.8% +/- 6.9% 32.5 3.40
Palencia, DanielRun-prevention profile built on workable command CHC 26 RP Balanced reliever 25.8% +/- 6.8% 36.7 3.39
Sisk, EvanLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape PIT 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 25.6% +/- 7.4% 30.4 3.69
Iglesias, RaiselRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATL 36 RP Offspeed mix artist 25.4% +/- 8.1% 41.9 3.45
Ryan, JoeBreaking-ball driven starter profile MIN 30 mixed Breaking-ball attack 25.4% +/- 4.8% 80.1 3.81
Bigge, HunterRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATH 28 RP Volatile contact 25.4% +/- 8.0% 31.7 3.92
Minter, A.j.Run-prevention profile built on workable command MIN 33 RP Offspeed mix artist 25.4% +/- 6.9% 34.5 3.89
Cabrera, EdwardBreaking-ball driven starter profile CHC 28 SP Breaking-ball attack 25.2% +/- 5.1% 140.4 3.77
Leiter Jr., MarkRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATH 35 RP Offspeed mix artist 25.2% +/- 7.0% 39.7 4.14
Soto, GregoryLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape PIT 31 RP Balanced reliever 2 25.1% +/- 7.1% 40.4 3.84
Blubaugh, AjRun-prevention profile built on workable command HOU 26 mixed Volatile contact 25.1% +/- 5.5% 68.0 4.25
Lopez, JacobBreaking-ball driven starter profile ATH 28 mixed Breaking-ball attack 24.9% +/- 4.9% 70.4 3.95
Weaver, LukeRun-prevention profile built on workable command PIT 33 RP Offspeed mix artist 24.8% +/- 7.8% 45.6 3.95
García, YimiRun-prevention profile built on workable command TOR 36 RP Balanced reliever 24.8% +/- 7.9% 35.7 3.54
Johnson, SethRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATH 28 RP Volatile contact 24.7% +/- 8.4% 31.2 3.82
Sterner, JustinLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape ATH 30 mixed Balanced reliever 2 24.5% +/- 5.3% 66.7 3.89
Varland, LouisRun-prevention profile built on workable command TOR 29 mixed Balanced reliever 24.5% +/- 5.9% 72.4 4.02
Bachar, LakeRun-prevention profile built on workable command PIT 31 mixed Balanced reliever 24.5% +/- 6.0% 65.6 4.49
Little, BrendonLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape TOR 30 RP Balanced reliever 2 24.4% +/- 6.9% 38.8 3.44
Rodón, CarlosBreaking-ball driven starter profile NYY 34 SP Breaking-ball attack 24.4% +/- 5.5% 145.0 3.87
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Pitcher cards carry arsenal, role, and split context.
Legacy projection boards
Season Outlook Team Season Projections

Projected wins, losses, win percentage, runs scored, and runs allowed from the saved Marcel-style team artifact.

2026 season / 30 teams → Season Outlook Pitcher Season Projections

Starter-only season projections for starts, innings, strikeouts, K/9, WHIP, and ERA from the saved artifact.

2026 season / 210 pitchers → Season Outlook Hitter Season Projections

Projected plate appearances, home runs, stolen bases, and slash-line production from the saved hitter artifact.

2026 season / 422 hitters → Daily Board Daily Pitcher Strikeout Projections

The current daily starter strikeout board with matchup context and supporting model features.

2026-09-27 slate / 30 starters → Daily Board Strikeout Props

Baseline and matchup-adjusted strikeout projections with threshold probabilities from the saved props artifact.

2026-09-27 slate / 17 starters →