Mithrandir Metrics
2026 season 570 hitters
Analytics / Projections · 2026 season

Live analytics, projection deltas, and October shape.

Current-season leaderboards sit beside preseason projections so the page can show what is happening now and how far it has moved from the original model.

Hitters
570
Pitchers
662
Teams
30
Live cache 2026-06-01 Projection build 2026-06-01 Regression rows 533
Live state / actual vs projected

Current leaders and projection misses

Open leaderboards
TeamPaceProjDelta
TBAmerican League East 104.1 73.0 +31.1
CWSAmerican League Central 87.9 67.5 +20.3
ATLNational League East 108.0 89.3 +18.7
MILNational League Central 101.2 82.8 +18.5
STLNational League Central 88.1 70.2 +17.9
RegressionSurfaceUnderGap
Wiemer, JoeyWSH / negative 0.508 0.315 -0.193
Barrosa, JorgeAZ / negative 0.401 0.222 -0.180
Donovan, BrendanSEA / negative 0.512 0.345 -0.167
Lee, BrooksMIN / negative 0.398 0.271 -0.127
Amaya, MiguelCHC / negative 0.437 0.290 -0.147
Current build

2026 season intelligence

Open standings

The projection stack starts at player-season components, propagates uncertainty into team outcomes, and exposes the same build through leaderboards, awards, standings, and accountability views.

hr_9 offset correction applied, with known overshoot risk in 2021-2025 pitcher calibration windows. If current MLB roster lookup is unavailable, the pipeline falls back to each player's latest historical team.
Top hitter xwOBA
0.468
Judge, Aaron
Top pitcher K%
38.1%
Miller, Mason
01 / Teams Standings + playoff odds

Projected records, division races, October odds, and team-level context.

30 teams → 02 / Players Hitter + pitcher forecasts

Calibrated player-season forecasts with intervals, archetypes, and profile links.

1232 players → 03 / Awards Awards + leaders

MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and projected stat leaderboards.

6 award boards → 04 / Accountability Scorecard

Live comparison of preseason projections against actual results once data arrives.

2026-06-01 →
Preview tables
Preseason projection

Top preseason clubs

See all
ClubWDiv%Playoff%
NYY American League East 94.7 68.7% 91.7%
LAD National League West 91.6 59.7% 83.6%
NYM National League East 90.8 41.3% 80.3%
ATL National League East 89.3 34.9% 77.4%
PHI National League East 87.7 23.0% 66.8%
Preseason Monte Carlo season simulator · 2026-06-01T11:40:34.984389+00:00
Rolling projection

Top live clubs

See all
ClubRoll WPaceMove
ATL National League East 98.5 108.0 +9.5
LAD National League West 98.1 104.3 +6.1
NYY American League East 96.9 98.8 +1.9
MIL National League Central 91.8 101.2 +8.8
TB American League East 88.0 104.1 +15.0
Bayesian rolling projection · 2026-06-01
Award model leaders · Live Market

Live market awards

See all
AwardLeaderLive Market %
AL MVP Judge, AaronNYY · IN 57.4%-135
NL Cy Young Skenes, PaulPIT · IN 15.4%+550
AL Rookie of the Year Basallo, SamuelBAL · IN 13.3%+650
NL MVP Soto, JuanNYM · IN 3.6%+2700
Current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Leaderboards

Projected HR leaders

Open leaders
#PlayerLgP50P10-P90Lead%
1 Judge, AaronNYY AL 45.7 45.7-45.7 57.1%
2 Raleigh, CalSEA AL 42.5 42.5-42.5 35.8%
3 Alonso, PeteBAL AL 33.0 33.0-33.0 2.9%
1 Schwarber, KylePHI NL 41.2 41.2-41.2 59.6%
2 Suárez, EugenioCIN NL 34.8 34.8-34.8 17.1%
3 Soto, JuanNYM NL 33.6 33.6-33.6 11.9%
Intervals shown as p10-p90. Single-number rows indicate deterministic point-only inputs.
Player projection layer
Hitter projections 2026

Calibrated hitter leaderboard

HitterTeamAgeArchetypexwOBARangePAHR
Judge, AaronMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 34 Impact slugger 0.468 +/- 0.052 643 46
Soto, JuanMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYM 28 Impact slugger 0.443 +/- 0.048 649 34
Guerrero Jr.., VladimirMiddle-order power profile with real damage TOR 27 Impact slugger 0.393 +/- 0.044 666 27
Alvarez, YordanMiddle-order power profile with real damage HOU 29 Impact slugger 0.392 +/- 0.052 371 18
Acuña Jr.., RonaldMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 29 Impact slugger 0.381 +/- 0.042 430 19
Witt Jr.., BobbyImpact bat with above-average thump KC 26 Balanced regular 0.380 +/- 0.048 630 25
Schwarber, KyleMiddle-order power profile with real damage PHI 33 Impact slugger 0.380 +/- 0.058 658 41
Seager, CoreyMiddle-order power profile with real damage TEX 32 Impact slugger 0.374 +/- 0.051 484 25
Tucker, KyleMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAD 29 Impact slugger 0.374 +/- 0.045 555 24
Merrill, JacksonEveryday offensive profile with usable floor SD 23 Balanced regular 0.371 +/- 0.042 519 19
Ozuna, MarcellMiddle-order power profile with real damage PIT 36 Impact slugger 0.370 +/- 0.052 577 27
Henderson, GunnarImpact bat with above-average thump BAL 25 Balanced regular 0.369 +/- 0.053 600 24
Tatis Jr.., FernandoOn-base driven regular with stable floor SD 27 Balanced regular 0.367 +/- 0.040 608 24
Wood, JamesImpact bat with above-average thump WSH 24 Balanced regular 0.367 +/- 0.055 592 23
Alonso, PeteMiddle-order power profile with real damage BAL 32 Impact slugger 0.364 +/- 0.056 648 33
Devers, RafaelMiddle-order power profile with real damage SF 30 Impact slugger 0.364 +/- 0.046 636 29
Rooker, BrentImpact bat with above-average thump ATH 32 Balanced regular 0.364 +/- 0.044 621 32
Rice, BenMiddle-order power profile with real damage NYY 27 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.040 511 23
Olson, MattMiddle-order power profile with real damage ATL 32 Impact slugger 0.362 +/- 0.054 645 31
Freeman, FreddieOn-base driven regular with stable floor LAD 37 Balanced regular 0.362 +/- 0.047 628 23
Marte, KetelMiddle-order power profile with real damage AZ 33 Impact slugger 0.360 +/- 0.046 549 26
Contreras, WillsonVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach BOS 34 Balanced regular 0.359 +/- 0.039 528 20
Harper, BryceOn-base driven regular with stable floor PHI 34 Balanced regular 0.358 +/- 0.047 574 25
Kurtz, NickYoung power bat with breakout ceiling ATH 23 Impact slugger 0.357 +/- 0.043 447 27
Carroll, CorbinYoung power bat with breakout ceiling AZ 26 Impact slugger 0.357 +/- 0.047 605 23
Greene, RileyImpact bat with above-average thump DET 26 Balanced regular 0.356 +/- 0.041 622 27
Lindor, FranciscoVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach NYM 33 Balanced regular 0.355 +/- 0.052 658 27
Raleigh, CalMiddle-order power profile with real damage SEA 30 Impact slugger 0.355 +/- 0.048 658 43
Busch, MichaelMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 29 Impact slugger 0.353 +/- 0.032 574 27
Anthony, RomanYoung power bat with breakout ceiling BOS 22 Impact slugger 0.353 +/- 0.052 363 10
Rodríguez, JulioEveryday offensive profile with usable floor SEA 26 Balanced regular 0.352 +/- 0.044 655 27
Betts, MookieOn-base driven regular with stable floor LAD 34 Balanced regular 0.352 +/- 0.052 635 24
Herrera, IvánEveryday offensive profile with usable floor STL 26 Balanced regular 0.351 +/- 0.029 462 15
Contreras, WilliamOn-base driven regular with stable floor MIL 29 Balanced regular 0.348 +/- 0.046 627 19
Aranda, JonathanMiddle-order power profile with real damage TB 28 Impact slugger 0.348 +/- 0.034 437 14
Díaz, YandyVeteran bat leaning on contact and approach TB 35 Balanced regular 0.348 +/- 0.036 600 20
Carpenter, KerryEveryday offensive profile with usable floor DET 29 Balanced regular 0.348 +/- 0.030 499 24
Smith, WillMiddle-order power profile with real damage LAD 31 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.046 517 19
Suzuki, SeiyaMiddle-order power profile with real damage CHC 32 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.045 605 27
Jensen, CarterYoung power bat with breakout ceiling KC 23 Impact slugger 0.346 +/- 0.064 236 8
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Player pages carry full component cards and narrative bullets.
Pitcher projections 2026

Calibrated pitcher leaderboard

PitcherTeamAgeRoleArchetypeK%RangeIPERA
Miller, MasonHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SD 28 RP Balanced reliever 2 38.1% +/- 8.2% 40.3 3.21
Bautista, FélixHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss BAL 31 RP Offspeed mix artist 36.1% +/- 7.8% 35.9 2.86
Cruz, FernandoHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss NYY 36 RP Offspeed mix artist 34.2% +/- 7.5% 39.7 3.58
Chapman, AroldisHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss BOS 38 RP Balanced reliever 34.2% +/- 7.9% 40.5 3.26
Williams, DevinHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss NYM 32 RP Offspeed mix artist 32.1% +/- 7.9% 38.0 3.30
Díaz, EdwinHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss LAD 32 RP Balanced reliever 2 32.1% +/- 8.2% 39.8 3.30
Martinez, JustinHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss AZ 25 RP Offspeed mix artist 32.0% +/- 8.3% 35.2 3.03
Estrada, JeremiahHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SD 28 RP Offspeed mix artist 31.9% +/- 7.9% 40.5 3.25
Hader, JoshHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 32 RP Balanced reliever 31.7% +/- 7.3% 40.0 3.52
Otañez, MichelHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss TEX 29 RP Volatile contact 31.5% +/- 8.1% 31.7 3.77
Abreu, BryanHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss HOU 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 31.0% +/- 7.8% 42.6 3.22
Burns, ChaseRun-prevention profile built on workable command CIN 23 mixed Balanced reliever 30.3% +/- 7.1% 65.9 3.86
Sabrowski, ErikHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss CLE 29 RP Balanced reliever 2 30.0% +/- 7.6% 33.2 3.42
Yesavage, TreyRun-prevention profile built on workable command TOR 23 mixed Offspeed mix artist 30.0% +/- 6.1% 65.5 3.77
Taylor, GrantLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape CWS 24 mixed Balanced reliever 2 30.0% +/- 6.4% 64.9 3.62
Crochet, GarrettBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape BOS 27 SP Balanced starter 29.8% +/- 6.2% 145.0 3.29
Hodge, PorterHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss CHC 25 RP Volatile contact 29.6% +/- 8.0% 35.7 3.59
Montgomery, MasonHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss PIT 26 RP Balanced reliever 2 29.5% +/- 8.1% 34.6 4.03
Smith, CadeHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss CLE 27 RP Offspeed mix artist 29.3% +/- 8.8% 43.2 3.45
Jax, GriffinRun-prevention profile built on workable command TB 32 mixed Balanced reliever 29.2% +/- 7.8% 68.1 3.43
Misiorowski, JacobBreaking-ball driven starter profile MIL 24 mixed Breaking-ball attack 28.9% +/- 5.9% 68.8 3.51
Skubal, TarikBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape DET 30 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.7% +/- 7.9% 147.1 3.01
Snell, BlakeBreaking-ball driven starter profile LAD 34 mixed Breaking-ball attack 28.5% +/- 6.3% 71.7 3.40
Muñoz, AndrésHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SEA 27 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.3% +/- 7.8% 41.1 2.79
Ragans, ColeBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape KC 29 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.3% +/- 5.4% 139.8 3.58
Speier, GabeHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SEA 31 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.2% +/- 7.8% 38.5 3.30
Brash, MattHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss SEA 28 RP Balanced reliever 28.1% +/- 7.4% 38.7 3.44
Puk, A.j.High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss AZ 31 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.1% +/- 8.4% 36.0 3.07
Detmers, ReidHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss LAA 27 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.1% +/- 6.9% 46.6 4.36
Uceta, EdwinHigh-leverage relief profile with bat-miss TB 28 RP Offspeed mix artist 28.1% +/- 7.9% 38.8 3.18
Garrett, ReedRun-prevention profile built on workable command NYM 33 mixed Offspeed mix artist 28.0% +/- 6.5% 64.8 3.79
Cease, DylanBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape TOR 31 SP Breaking-ball attack 28.0% +/- 6.1% 145.9 3.76
Henriquez, RonnyRun-prevention profile built on workable command MIA 26 RP Balanced reliever 28.0% +/- 7.2% 38.0 3.49
Vesia, AlexRun-prevention profile built on workable command LAD 30 RP Balanced reliever 28.0% +/- 8.0% 40.5 3.37
Nardi, AndrewLate-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape MIA 28 RP Balanced reliever 2 28.0% +/- 7.4% 37.7 3.36
Greene, HunterBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape CIN 27 SP Breaking-ball attack 27.9% +/- 5.6% 142.2 3.50
Ohtani, ShoheiBat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape LAD 32 SP Breaking-ball attack 27.8% +/- 6.7% 138.3 3.33
Whitlock, GarrettRun-prevention profile built on workable command BOS 30 RP Balanced reliever 27.8% +/- 7.8% 39.5 3.61
Hoffman, JeffRun-prevention profile built on workable command TOR 33 RP Offspeed mix artist 27.6% +/- 8.7% 42.4 3.14
Lee, DylanRun-prevention profile built on workable command ATL 32 RP Balanced reliever 27.5% +/- 7.3% 39.8 3.33
Showing first 40 filtered rows. Pitcher cards carry arsenal, role, and split context.
Legacy projection boards
Season Outlook Team Season Projections

Projected wins, losses, win percentage, runs scored, and runs allowed from the saved Marcel-style team artifact.

2026 season / 30 teams → Season Outlook Pitcher Season Projections

Starter-only season projections for starts, innings, strikeouts, K/9, WHIP, and ERA from the saved artifact.

2026 season / 210 pitchers → Season Outlook Hitter Season Projections

Projected plate appearances, home runs, stolen bases, and slash-line production from the saved hitter artifact.

2026 season / 422 hitters → Daily Board Daily Pitcher Strikeout Projections

The current daily starter strikeout board with matchup context and supporting model features.

2026-06-01 slate / 17 starters → Daily Board Strikeout Props

Baseline and matchup-adjusted strikeout projections with threshold probabilities from the saved props artifact.

2026-06-01 slate / 11 starters →