Consensus & Disagreement | Mithrandir Metrics

BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp ELIGIBLE 2 markets MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands VIEW aligned

Lane Health 2026-07-18

Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling

Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable

Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp

01 HR · 0.5 Vinnie Pasquantino KC vs SD

FULL
18.7% average · market 16.7% 3.1 pts +2.0pp 02 HR · 0.5 Bobby Witt Jr. KC vs SD

FULL
17.2% average · market 17.7% 4.9 pts -0.5pp 03 HR · 0.5 James Wood WSH vs ATH

FULL
17.1% average · market 16.4% 4.1 pts +0.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Salvador Perez KC vs SD

FULL
16.9% average · market 18.0% 4.6 pts -1.2pp 05 HR · 0.5 Aaron Judge NYY vs LAD

FULL
16.8% average · market 29.8% 4.6 pts -13.0pp 06 HR · 0.5 Tyler Soderstrom ATH vs WSH

FULL
16.3% average · market 14.0% 4.8 pts +2.3pp 07 HR · 0.5 Taylor Ward BAL vs HOU

FULL
16.2% average · market 18.0% 3.9 pts -1.8pp 08 HR · 0.5 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs NYY

FULL
16.1% average · market 29.0% 2.9 pts -12.9pp 09 HR · 0.5 Cody Bellinger NYY vs LAD

FULL
16.1% average · market 17.7% 4.7 pts -1.6pp 10 HR · 0.5 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL vs TEX

FULL
16.1% average · market 20.0% 2.9 pts -3.9pp 11 HR · 0.5 Jose Altuve HOU vs BAL

FULL
16.0% average · market 15.6% 3.7 pts +0.4pp 12 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs MIA

FULL
16.0% average · market 17.2% 4.2 pts -1.2pp 13 HR · 0.5 Pete Alonso BAL vs HOU

FULL
15.9% average · market 23.0% 3.5 pts -7.1pp 14 HR · 0.5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY vs LAD

FULL
15.9% average · market 19.2% 2.9 pts -3.3pp 15 HR · 0.5 Mookie Betts LAD vs NYY

FULL
15.8% average · market 16.7% 4.0 pts -0.8pp 16 HR · 0.5 Gunnar Henderson BAL vs HOU

FULL
15.8% average · market 18.4% 3.5 pts -2.5pp 17 HR · 0.5 Lawrence Butler ATH vs WSH

FULL
15.7% average · market 14.9% 3.3 pts +0.8pp 18 HR · 0.5 Brent Rooker ATH vs WSH

FULL
15.7% average · market 21.5% 3.3 pts -5.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Francisco Lindor NYM vs PHI

FULL
15.7% average · market 19.4% 3.3 pts -3.7pp 20 HR · 0.5 Freddie Freeman LAD vs NYY

FULL
15.7% average · market 16.4% 3.8 pts -0.7pp 21 HR · 0.5 Christian Walker HOU vs BAL

FULL
15.7% average · market 18.9% 2.6 pts -3.2pp 22 HR · 0.5 Matt Olson ATL vs TEX

FULL
15.6% average · market 20.8% 3.1 pts -5.3pp 23 HR · 0.5 Nick Kurtz ATH vs WSH

FULL
15.5% average · market 27.0% 3.9 pts -11.6pp 24 HR · 0.5 George Springer TOR vs CWS

FULL
15.2% average · market 17.7% 2.3 pts -2.5pp 25 HR · 0.5 Michael Busch CHC vs MIN

FULL
15.2% average · market 18.7% 2.3 pts -3.5pp 26 HR · 0.5 Juan Soto NYM vs PHI

FULL
15.2% average · market 23.3% 1.6 pts -8.1pp 27 HR · 0.5 Shea Langeliers ATH vs WSH

FULL
15.2% average · market 20.8% 2.5 pts -5.7pp 28 HR · 0.5 Teoscar Hernández LAD vs NYY

FULL
15.1% average · market 19.1% 2.3 pts -3.9pp 29 HR · 0.5 Eugenio Suárez CIN vs COL

FULL
15.1% average · market 21.7% 3.3 pts -6.6pp 30 HR · 0.5 Kyle Tucker LAD vs NYY

FULL
15.1% average · market 18.4% 2.5 pts -3.3pp 31 HR · 0.5 Ozzie Albies ATL vs TEX

FULL
15.0% average · market 13.5% 3.4 pts +1.6pp 32 HR · 0.5 Jorge Polanco NYM vs PHI

FULL
15.0% average · market 16.7% 1.2 pts -1.7pp 33 HR · 0.5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR vs CWS

FULL
14.9% average · market 17.0% 1.0 pts -2.0pp 34 HR · 0.5 Austin Riley ATL vs TEX

FULL
14.8% average · market 17.5% 3.6 pts -2.7pp 35 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs STL

FULL
14.8% average · market 18.4% 4.9 pts -3.5pp 36 HR · 0.5 Alec Bohm PHI vs NYM

FULL
14.8% average · market 11.1% 2.6 pts +3.7pp 37 HR · 0.5 Isaac Paredes HOU vs BAL

FULL
14.7% average · market 16.8% 1.0 pts -2.1pp 38 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs DET

FULL
14.7% average · market 17.7% 2.9 pts -3.0pp 39 HR · 0.5 Tyler O'Neill BAL vs HOU

FULL
14.6% average · market 17.7% 0.8 pts -3.1pp 40 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs AZ

FULL
14.6% average · market 13.3% 3.2 pts +1.3pp 41 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs DET

FULL
14.5% average · market 19.8% 2.4 pts -5.3pp 42 HR · 0.5 Rafael Devers SF vs SEA

FULL
14.5% average · market 20.8% 1.7 pts -6.3pp 43 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs STL

FULL
14.5% average · market 21.1% 2.8 pts -6.6pp 44 HR · 0.5 Giancarlo Stanton NYY vs LAD

FULL
14.5% average · market 22.2% 0.4 pts -7.8pp 45 HR · 0.5 Luis García Jr. WSH vs ATH

FULL
14.5% average · market 12.4% 4.0 pts +2.1pp 46 HR · 0.5 Yordan Alvarez HOU vs BAL

FULL
14.5% average · market 20.2% 1.4 pts -5.7pp 47 HR · 0.5 Jeremy Peña HOU vs BAL

FULL
14.4% average · market 11.6% 4.4 pts +2.9pp 48 HR · 0.5 Ian Happ CHC vs MIN

FULL
14.3% average · market 15.5% 2.4 pts -1.2pp 49 HR · 0.5 Byron Buxton MIN vs CHC

FULL
14.3% average · market 22.0% 1.1 pts -7.7pp 50 HR · 0.5 Ben Rice NYY vs LAD

FULL
14.2% average · market 16.3% 3.1 pts -2.0pp 51 HR · 0.5 Willy Adames SF vs SEA

FULL
14.2% average · market 17.7% 1.3 pts -3.5pp 52 HR · 0.5 Adley Rutschman BAL vs HOU

FULL
14.2% average · market 11.9% 1.2 pts +2.3pp 53 HR · 0.5 Daulton Varsho TOR vs CWS

FULL
14.1% average · market 17.5% 1.2 pts -3.4pp 54 HR · 0.5 Marcus Semien NYM vs PHI

FULL
14.1% average · market 13.6% 1.8 pts +0.4pp 55 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs DET

FULL
14.0% average · market 20.8% 1.2 pts -6.8pp 56 HR · 0.5 Heliot Ramos SF vs SEA

FULL
13.9% average · market 13.1% 1.6 pts +0.8pp 57 HR · 0.5 Julio Rodríguez SEA vs SF

FULL
13.9% average · market 18.0% 0.8 pts -4.1pp 58 HR · 0.5 Tyler Stephenson CIN vs COL

FULL
13.7% average · market 12.3% 2.2 pts +1.4pp 59 HR · 0.5 Jesús Sánchez TOR vs CWS

FULL
13.7% average · market 12.3% 1.5 pts +1.4pp 60 HR · 0.5 Matt Chapman SF vs SEA

FULL
13.7% average · market 16.1% 0.5 pts -2.4pp 61 HR · 0.5 Cal Raleigh SEA vs SF

FULL
13.7% average · market 26.3% 2.0 pts -12.6pp 62 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs MIA

FULL
13.6% average · market 12.5% 1.5 pts +1.2pp 63 HR · 0.5 Josh Naylor SEA vs SF

FULL
13.5% average · market 17.0% 0.8 pts -3.4pp 64 HR · 0.5 Alex Bregman CHC vs MIN

FULL
13.5% average · market 15.3% 0.4 pts -1.7pp 65 HR · 0.5 Randy Arozarena SEA vs SF

FULL
13.5% average · market 14.5% 0.7 pts -1.0pp 66 HR · 0.5 Carlos Correa HOU vs BAL

FULL
13.4% average · market 11.5% 3.8 pts +1.9pp 67 HR · 0.5 Yainer Diaz HOU vs BAL

FULL
13.3% average · market 14.0% 3.0 pts -0.7pp 68 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs CHC

FULL
13.3% average · market 15.4% 1.7 pts -2.1pp 69 HR · 0.5 Jorge Soler LAA vs DET

FULL
13.2% average · market 18.2% 2.1 pts -4.9pp 70 HR · 0.5 Jonathan India KC vs SD

FULL
13.2% average · market 9.5% 1.2 pts +3.7pp 71 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs MIA

FULL
13.1% average · market 10.0% 4.6 pts +3.1pp 72 HR · 0.5 Dansby Swanson CHC vs MIN

FULL
13.1% average · market 13.6% 2.6 pts -0.5pp 73 HR · 0.5 Logan O'Hoppe LAA vs DET

FULL
13.1% average · market 16.5% 1.4 pts -3.5pp 74 HR · 0.5 Colson Montgomery CWS vs TOR

FULL
13.0% average · market 23.3% 0.9 pts -10.2pp 75 HR · 0.5 Jj Bleday CIN vs COL

FULL
13.0% average · market 13.4% 4.8 pts -0.5pp 76 HR · 0.5 Yoán Moncada LAA vs DET

FULL
13.0% average · market 13.3% 3.3 pts -0.4pp 77 HR · 0.5 Mark Vientos NYM vs PHI

FULL
12.8% average · market 17.0% 0.5 pts -4.2pp 78 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs CHC

FULL
12.7% average · market 16.7% 1.7 pts -4.0pp 79 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs ATH

FULL
12.6% average · market 9.8% 3.8 pts +2.8pp 80 HR · 0.5 Carlos Santana AZ vs STL

FULL
12.4% average · market 14.2% 1.7 pts -1.8pp 81 HR · 0.5 José Tena WSH vs ATH

FULL
12.2% average · market 7.7% 4.5 pts +4.6pp 82 HR · 0.5 Ryan Jeffers MIN vs CHC

FULL
12.1% average · market 12.9% 2.4 pts -0.8pp 83 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs CHC

FULL
11.6% average · market 10.9% 0.5 pts +0.6pp 84 HR · 0.5 Jacob Wilson ATH vs WSH

FULL
11.2% average · market 8.7% 0.8 pts +2.5pp 85 HR · 0.5 Nico Hoerner CHC vs MIN

FULL
10.6% average · market 7.7% 4.8 pts +2.9pp 86 HR · 0.5 Brendan Donovan SEA vs SF

FULL
10.5% average · market 9.8% 4.2 pts +0.8pp 87 HR · 0.5 Edgar Quero CWS vs TOR

FULL
10.5% average · market 7.7% 5.0 pts +2.8pp 88 HR · 0.5 Victor Scott II STL vs AZ

FULL
10.2% average · market 7.7% 4.0 pts +2.5pp 89 HR · 0.5 Jung Hoo Lee SF vs SEA

FULL
9.4% average · market 7.7% 3.7 pts +1.7pp 90 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs TOR

FULL
9.3% average · market 7.7% 4.5 pts +1.6pp

B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp

01 HR · 0.5 Bryce Harper PHI vs NYM

FULL
17.3% average · market 18.9% 6.2 pts -1.6pp 02 HR · 0.5 Trea Turner PHI vs NYM

FULL
17.0% average · market 14.7% 5.0 pts +2.3pp 03 HR · 0.5 Kyle Schwarber PHI vs NYM

FULL
16.8% average · market 26.0% 6.1 pts -9.2pp 04 HR · 0.5 Elly De La Cruz CIN vs COL

FULL
16.7% average · market 15.0% 7.7 pts +1.7pp 05 HR · 0.5 Adolis García PHI vs NYM

FULL
16.7% average · market 18.7% 6.1 pts -2.0pp 06 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs ATH

FULL
16.5% average · market 13.9% 6.3 pts +2.5pp 07 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs AZ

FULL
15.1% average · market 12.5% 5.3 pts +2.6pp 08 HR · 0.5 Bo Bichette NYM vs PHI

FULL
15.0% average · market 12.1% 6.4 pts +2.9pp 09 HR · 0.5 Spencer Steer CIN vs COL

FULL
15.0% average · market 13.7% 5.6 pts +1.2pp 10 HR · 0.5 Tj Friedl CIN vs COL

FULL
14.8% average · market 12.7% 5.7 pts +2.1pp 11 HR · 0.5 Lane Thomas KC vs SD

FULL
14.6% average · market 12.5% 5.7 pts +2.1pp 12 HR · 0.5 Daylen Lile WSH vs ATH

FULL
14.4% average · market 11.1% 7.7 pts +3.3pp 13 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs TOR

FULL
13.8% average · market 13.0% 5.3 pts +0.8pp 14 HR · 0.5 Andy Pages LAD vs NYY

FULL
13.5% average · market 13.9% 5.6 pts -0.4pp 15 HR · 0.5 Nathan Lukes TOR vs CWS

FULL
13.3% average · market 9.1% 5.1 pts +4.2pp 16 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs STL

FULL
13.1% average · market 9.3% 5.8 pts +3.7pp 17 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs SEA

FULL
10.8% average · market 7.7% 5.7 pts +3.1pp

C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp

No rows

No rows currently meet this consensus band.

D · Coverage transparency

Three-lane eligible 2 Home Runs · Total Bases

Partial coverage 2 Hits · Pitcher Outs

Single-lane 2 Strikeouts · Futures

Contract 5 / 10 Consensus thresholds documented in the lane contract.