Mithrandir Metrics
0 aligned 0 disagreements Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Consensus surface

Consensus and disagreement.

See where all three models converge and where their probabilities split.

Aligned
0
Soft
0
Disagreed
0
BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp ELIGIBLE 1 markets MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands VIEW aligned
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10922 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 889 props Brier 0.170 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Three-lane rows not available

Consensus and disagreement require at least two lanes to publish probabilities for the same market row. K and Futures remain insufficient-lane markets. Hits and Pitcher Outs can publish partial two-lane rows. HR and Total Bases can publish full three-lane rows.

A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp
No rows

No rows currently meet this consensus band.

B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp
No rows

No rows currently meet this consensus band.

C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp
No rows

No rows currently meet this consensus band.

D · Coverage transparency
Three-lane eligible 1 Home Runs
Partial coverage 0 No markets in this bucket today.
Single-lane 5 Strikeouts · Total Bases · Hits · Pitcher Outs · Futures
Contract 5 / 10 Consensus thresholds documented in the lane contract.