Mithrandir Metrics
75 aligned 18 lane-health rows Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · The three lanes

Three independent models. One row at a time.

Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor read the same slate through different methods. Convergence is useful; disagreement is often more revealing. This hub teaches the strip once, then sends you to the right board.

Slate
15
Aligned
75
Split watch
1
CONSENSUS 75 aligned · 0 mixed DISAGREEMENT 1 rows above watch threshold LINEUPS tracking; not posted yet STATUS 1608 player records LINEUP PULLS baseline + per-game checks
Lane health Drift flags mean a market/lane needs calibration review because recent probability buckets moved, not that every model is getting worse. Rows with insufficient sample stay labeled until enough outcomes accumulate.
Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
How the three-lane strip reads

Aligned

≤ 5pp
P 38.0
F 40.0
V 39.0

Three methods converging tightly. Useful, but still filtered through line quality and sample context.

Soft consensus

6-10pp
P 31.0
F 37.0
V 33.0

Same direction, wider uncertainty. Median probability matters; the spread tells you how much humility to carry.

Today’s slate
Market navigation
Custom Combo Combo Analyzer Build your own 2-to-6 leg combo from the current prop universe and get joint probability, edge, correlation notes, and a sharp analyst read. 2026-06-12 slate · 2 to 6 legstracking Season Futures Futures Gap Board A season-long fair-price comparison surface for division winners, pennants, World Series, win totals, and awards, framed around uncertainty rather than picks. 20260612 snapshot · 280 rowstracking Market Structure Market Watch A source-aware line shopping and CLV-readiness surface that separates consensus-backed markets from sparse or single-book rows. 20260612 snapshot · 497 anchor-ready rowstracking Home Run Props Home Run Hub The central home run overview page, built to summarize Mithrandir's model lanes, market context, and supporting HR boards without replacing the dedicated model pages. 2026-06-12 slate · 5 signalstracking Palantir Model Palantír Stable daily board 2026-06-12 slate · Stable daily boardtracking Fangorn Model Fangorn Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps, surfaced through the saved core, select, conviction, and parlay layers. 2026-06-12 slate · 8 singlestracking Total Bases TB Value Board A model-vs-market pricing board for total bases that surfaces under values first, over leans as context, and the biggest line gaps without forcing official picks. 2026-06-12 slate · 80 board rowstracking Strikeout Props Strikeout Value Board An internal strikeout projection board built from Mithrandir starter and matchup artifacts, with no live sportsbook dependency in the website path. 2026-06-12 slate · 17 board rowstracking Hits Hits Board A cleaner contact-volume prop lane focused on expected hits, 0.5 and 1.5 hit probabilities, and market-aware decision layers. 2026-06-12 slate · 71 board rowstracking Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs Board Starter workload, leash, and traffic-risk informed pitcher outs projections with a clean fair-odds fallback. 2026-06-12 slate · 10 board rowstracking Game markets · pilot NRFI / YRFI Daily artifact is wired; production inference is still a carried debt. 15 rowspilot

Run lines & totals

15 games
MIA @ PITmodel total 8.5 1.5 / -1.5 8.5
SEA @ WSHmodel total 9.1 -1.5 / 1.5 9.0
SD @ BALmodel total 9.4 1.5 / -1.5 9.5
DET @ CLEmodel total 9.2 -1.5 / 1.5 9.0
TEX @ BOSmodel total 8.9 1.5 / -1.5 9.0
AZ @ CINmodel total 8.8 -1.5 / 1.5 9.0

Operational context

777 sample flags
Lineups0not posted yet
Player status1608transactions / roster
Triple-confirmed0cross-domain signals

These artifacts feed row chips on the boards. Missing lineup rows mean pre-confirmation pool, not fabricated “IN” labels.

Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)