Mithrandir Metrics
32 aligned 18 lane-health rows Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Betting desk · Latest available models

Game reads and model-market comparisons.

Start with a game. Historical model boards are labeled clearly when today’s slate is not ready.

Slate
12
Aligned
32
Split watch
10
Historical model boards The latest available betting-model slate is 2026-07-27. Current-game reads may still be available below, but incomplete player comparisons are withheld.

Start with the game

Choose a matchup to answer the side question first, then see totals, first inning, player markets, model availability, and Kalshi in one place.

Open full slate
1:40 PM ET · Awaiting game model CLE at CIN No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI -- 7:10 PM ET · Awaiting game model CLE at CIN No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI -- 6:40 PM ET · Awaiting game model BAL at DET No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI -- 6:40 PM ET · Awaiting game model AZ at PIT No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI -- 6:40 PM ET · Awaiting game model TEX at TB No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI -- 6:40 PM ET · Awaiting game model PHI at MIA No trustworthy side read is published yet. Read Pending Total -- NRFI --
MODELS 32 aligned · 10 split LINEUPS 216 confirmed PLAYER STATUS 2381 tracked

Which models are live?

Availability comes from today’s saved outputs. “Not live” means Mithrandir is intentionally withholding a number.

Full coverage details
Home Runs
Palantir · live Fangorn · live Valinor · live
Strikeouts
Palantir · live Fangorn · not live Valinor · not live
Total Bases
Palantir · live Fangorn · not live Valinor · not live
Hits
Palantir · live Fangorn · not live Valinor · not live
Pitcher Outs
Palantir · live Fangorn · not live Valinor · not live
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane health Drift flags mean a market/lane needs calibration review because recent probability buckets moved, not that every model is getting worse. Rows with insufficient sample stay labeled until enough outcomes accumulate.
Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
How the three-lane strip reads

Aligned

≤ 5pp
P 38.0
F 40.0
V 39.0

Three methods converging tightly. Useful, but still filtered through line quality and sample context.

Soft consensus

6-10pp
P 31.0
F 37.0
V 33.0

Same direction, wider uncertainty. Median probability matters; the spread tells you how much humility to carry.

Disagreement

Watch
P 22.0
F 39.0
V 26.0

One lane sees something the others smooth through. That is a research signal, not noise to hide.

Today’s slate

Disagreement watch

10 rows · spread above 10pp
Open
01 Cj AbramsFangorn sees 22.3%; Valinor sees 14.8%; gap of 7.4 pts. Market fair: 13.9%.
P 18.0
F 22.3
V 14.8
FULL
7.4 pts 02 Brandon NimmoFangorn sees 20.2%; Valinor sees 12.9%; gap of 7.3 pts. Market fair: 15.6%.
P 17.6
F 20.2
V 12.9
FULL
7.3 pts 03 Bo BichettePalantir sees 16.2%; Valinor sees 9.0%; gap of 7.2 pts. Market fair: 12.2%.
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 9.0
FULL
7.2 pts 04 Xavier EdwardsValinor sees 10.6%; Fangorn sees 3.4%; gap of 7.1 pts. Market fair: 8.0%.
P 5.1
F 3.4
V 10.6
FULL
7.1 pts 05 Chase MeidrothValinor sees 10.5%; Fangorn sees 3.4%; gap of 7.0 pts. Market fair: 7.7%.
P 4.9
F 3.4
V 10.5
FULL
7.0 pts
Market navigation
Custom Combo Combo Analyzer Build your own 2-to-6 leg combo from the current prop universe and get joint probability, model-market gap, correlation notes, and an analyst read. 2026-07-27 slate · 2 to 6 legstracking Season Futures Futures Gap Board A season-long fair-price comparison surface for division winners, pennants, World Series, win totals, and awards, framed around uncertainty rather than picks. 20260727 snapshot · 161 rowstracking Market Structure Market Watch A source-aware line shopping and CLV-readiness surface that separates consensus-backed markets from sparse or single-book rows. 20260727 snapshot · 20 anchor-ready rowstracking Home Run Props Home Run Hub The central home run overview page, built to summarize Mithrandir's model lanes, market context, and supporting HR boards without replacing the dedicated model pages. 2026-07-27 slate · 5 signalstracking Palantir Model Palantír Stable daily board 2026-07-27 slate · Stable daily boardtracking Fangorn Model Fangorn Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps, surfaced through the saved core, select, conviction, and parlay layers. 2026-07-27 slate · 8 singlestracking Total Bases TB Value Board A model-vs-market pricing board for total bases that surfaces under values first, over leans as context, and the biggest line gaps without forcing official picks. 2026-07-27 slate · 109 board rowstracking Strikeout Props Strikeout Value Board An internal strikeout projection board built from Mithrandir starter and matchup artifacts, with no live sportsbook dependency in the website path. 2026-07-27 slate · 14 board rowstracking Hits Hits Board A cleaner contact-volume prop lane focused on expected hits, 0.5 and 1.5 hit probabilities, and market-aware decision layers. 2026-07-27 slate · 58 board rowstracking Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs Board Starter workload, leash, and traffic-risk informed pitcher outs projections with a clean fair-odds fallback. 2026-07-27 slate · 7 board rowstracking Game markets · unified view Game center Answer the matchup question first, then open the supporting model and market layers. 16 gamesstart here Game markets · pilot NRFI / YRFI Daily artifact is wired; production inference is still a carried debt. 12 rowspilot Event markets · live exchange context Kalshi vs Mithrandir Game-winner and first-inning exchange prices beside the model's fair probability. 11 marketsstale

Operational context

778 sample flags
Lineups216confirmed rows
Player status2381transactions / roster
Triple-confirmed0cross-domain signals

These artifacts feed row chips on the boards. Missing lineup rows mean pre-confirmation pool, not fabricated “IN” labels.

Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)