Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Oct 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Shawn Armstrong

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 225 lb · Age 36

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024334.86577166.2661.53
2025432.31712974.0740.81
2026214.58410035.1341.39
12 Seasons17123.884111817456.24681.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-17
ERA preseason3.70
ERA current pace4.58
ERA rolling p504.08
Observed weight43%
ERA
3.02 3.52 4.08 4.63 5.14
FIP
3.19 3.36 3.56 3.75 3.93
K%
19.4% 21.1% 23.0% 24.9% 26.6%
BB%
7.1% 8.1% 9.2% 10.3% 11.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
67
ERA4.58
35
BB%11.5%
22 -43 vs proj
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.301
67 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
59 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
85
Whiff%19.8%
25
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-17
Cutter Stuff+104
74
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Sinker Stuff+92
7
Slider Stuff+97
19
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Armstrong, Shawn · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-10-06: 0.3102026-10-07: 0.3102026-10-08: 0.3072026-10-09: 0.3072026-10-10: 0.3072026-10-11: 0.3072026-10-12: 0.3072026-10-13: 0.3072026-10-14: 0.3012026-10-15: 0.3012026-10-16: 0.3012026-10-17: 0.301 2026-10-06 2026-10-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Armstrong, Shawn · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Armstrong, Shawn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.0%Sweeper: 29.8%Cutter: 23.0%Sinker: 17.2% FF30% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 30%ST 30%FC 23%SI 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Armstrong, Shawn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mphCutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSinker: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.6% 112 100 limited sample
SL 30.2% 107 97 limited sample
FC 21.2% 75 104 limited sample
SI 16.9% 60 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 2"
Weight225 lb
Debut2015-08-08
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ+0.000

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.309
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.301

Armstrong’s wOBA-against sits at 0.309, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.008, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding12026-10-131 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-17 vs BAL3 ER / 0 K0.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ STL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ ATL0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs KC0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC1 ER / 2 K1.1 IP