The Mirror / 2026-06-12 beta
It shows things that were, things that are, and things that yet may be.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Live right now
In-game re-simulation
Every ~2 minutes the engine re-simulates each game from its actual current state: score, runners, outs, who's pitching and how many pitches he's thrown. Updated 03:58:10Z UTC.
TB @ LAA
Bottom 8 · 2-4 · 1 out
TB 7.1%LAA 92.9%
COL @ ATH
Bottom 6 · 4-2 · 1 out
COL 56.5%ATH 43.5%
CHC @ SF
Bottom 6 · 5-0 · 2 out
CHC 95.5%SF 4.5%
TB @ LAA — batter-by-batter tracker (70 PAs)
| Inn | Matchup | We expected | Actual | LAA win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 8 | Zach Neto vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 24% | Batter Timeout | 93.4% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 8 | Jose Siri vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 25% hit 28% · K 22% | Batter Timeout | 91.4% ▼ 1.7 |
| Top 8 | Ben Williamson vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 24% hit 22% · K 21% | Strikeout | 93.1% ▲ 3.7 |
| Top 8 | Austin Slater vs Mitch Farris | K 25% hit 22% · K 25% | Double | 89.4% ▼ 1.7 |
| Top 8 | Ryan Vilade vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 19% | Flyout | 91.1% ▲ 8.3 |
| Top 8 | Junior Caminero vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 24% hit 23% · K 17% | Defensive Switch | 82.9% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 7 | Logan O'Hoppe vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 19% | Lineout | 84.6% ▼ 2.3 |
| Bot 7 | Nick Madrigal vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 31% hit 26% · K 10% | Walk | 86.9% |
| Bot 7 | Denzer Guzman vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 28% hit 27% · K 17% | Single | 86.9% ▲ 1.7 |
| Bot 7 | Nolan Schanuel vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 29% hit 25% · K 15% | Mound Visit | 85.1% |
| Bot 7 | Oswald Peraza vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 27% · K 19% | Strikeout | 85.4% ▼ 0.9 |
| Top 7 | Jonathan Aranda vs Mitch Farris | K 23% hit 22% · K 23% | Groundout | 86.3% ▲ 2.3 |
| Top 7 | Yandy Díaz vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 25% hit 28% · K 15% | Flyout | 84.0% ▲ 2.0 |
| Top 7 | Taylor Walls vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 25% hit 20% · K 23% | Walk | 82.0% ▼ 2.0 |
| Top 7 | Nick Fortes vs Mitch Farris | OUT AIR 28% hit 24% · K 16% | Pop Out | 84.0% ▲ 6.3 |
| Bot 6 | Jo Adell vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 29% hit 26% · K 20% | Flyout | 77.7% ▼ 2.6 |
| Bot 6 | Mike Trout vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 20% | Intent Walk | 80.3% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 6 | Zach Neto vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 24% | Mound Visit | 82.0% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 6 | Jose Siri vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 25% hit 28% · K 22% | Sac Bunt | 83.7% ▼ 3.2 |
| Bot 6 | Logan O'Hoppe vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 19% | Double | 86.9% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 6 | Chandler Simpson vs Chase Silseth | OUT AIR 28% hit 22% · K 14% | Lineout | 82.9% ▲ 4.9 |
| Top 6 | Ben Williamson vs Chase Silseth | OUT AIR 24% hit 20% · K 20% | Single | 78.0% ▼ 3.4 |
| Top 6 | Austin Slater vs Chase Silseth | K 24% hit 19% · K 24% | Strikeout | 81.4% ▲ 3.1 |
| Top 6 | Ryan Vilade vs Chase Silseth | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 19% | Strikeout | 78.3% ▲ 1.7 |
| Bot 5 | Nick Madrigal vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 31% hit 26% · K 10% | Pop Out | 76.6% ▼ 3.4 |
| Bot 5 | Denzer Guzman vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 28% hit 27% · K 17% | Double | 80.0% ▲ 3.4 |
| Bot 5 | Trey Mancini vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 18% | Groundout | 76.6% ▼ 2.9 |
| Bot 5 | Oswald Peraza vs Mason Englert | OUT AIR 26% hit 27% · K 19% | Pitching Substitution | 79.4% ▼ 3.1 |
| Top 5 | Junior Caminero vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 12% | Grounded Into DP | 82.6% ▲ 15.1 |
| Top 5 | Jonathan Aranda vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 18% | Single +2 RBI | 67.4% ▼ 10.6 |
| Top 5 | Yandy Díaz vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 27% hit 28% · K 11% | Strikeout | 78.0% ▲ 12.6 |
| Top 5 | Taylor Walls vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 17% | Single | 65.4% ▼ 12.6 |
| Top 5 | Nick Fortes vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 30% hit 24% · K 12% | Fielders Choice | 78.0% ▼ 7.4 |
| Top 5 | Chandler Simpson vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 10% | Walk | 85.4% ▼ 2.9 |
| Bot 4 | Jo Adell vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 28% hit 20% · K 25% | Strikeout | 88.3% ▲ 0.9 |
| Bot 4 | Mike Trout vs Shane McClanahan | K 24% hit 17% · K 24% | Lineout | 87.4% ▼ 4.9 |
| Bot 4 | Zach Neto vs Shane McClanahan | K 29% hit 18% · K 29% | Strikeout | 92.3% ▲ 5.4 |
| Top 4 | Ben Williamson vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 15% | Flyout | 86.9% ▼ 3.4 |
| Top 4 | Austin Slater vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 19% | Groundout | 90.3% ▲ 5.1 |
| Top 4 | Ryan Vilade vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 29% hit 24% · K 14% | Strikeout | 85.1% ▼ 1.1 |
| Bot 3 | Jose Siri vs Shane McClanahan | K 27% hit 22% · K 27% | Flyout | 86.3% ▼ 2.3 |
| Bot 3 | Logan O'Hoppe vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 28% hit 17% · K 23% | Single +1 RBI | 88.6% ▲ 18.0 |
| Bot 3 | Nick Madrigal vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 31% hit 21% · K 13% | Batter Timeout | 70.6% ▼ 5.1 |
| Bot 3 | Denzer Guzman vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 21% | Flyout | 75.7% ▼ 1.1 |
| Bot 3 | Trey Mancini vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 25% hit 19% · K 22% | Strikeout | 76.9% |
| Bot 3 | Oswald Peraza vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 26% hit 21% · K 24% | Double | 76.6% ▲ 7.1 |
| Top 3 | Junior Caminero vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 12% | Strikeout | 69.4% ▼ 3.7 |
| Top 3 | Jonathan Aranda vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 18% | Groundout | 73.1% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 3 | Yandy Díaz vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 27% hit 28% · K 11% | Pop Out | 69.1% ▲ 3.7 |
| Bot 2 | Jo Adell vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 28% hit 20% · K 25% | Forceout | 65.4% ▼ 5.7 |
| Bot 2 | Mike Trout vs Shane McClanahan | K 24% hit 17% · K 24% | Walk | 71.1% ▼ 7.4 |
| Bot 2 | Zach Neto vs Shane McClanahan | K 29% hit 18% · K 29% | Game Advisory | 78.6% ▲ 5.1 |
| Bot 2 | Jose Siri vs Shane McClanahan | K 27% hit 22% · K 27% | Single | 73.4% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 2 | Logan O'Hoppe vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 28% hit 17% · K 23% | Strikeout | 71.4% ▼ 1.4 |
| Bot 2 | Nick Madrigal vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 31% hit 21% · K 13% | Single | 72.9% ▲ 3.4 |
| Top 2 | Taylor Walls vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 17% | Flyout | 69.4% |
| Top 2 | Nick Fortes vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 30% hit 24% · K 12% | Strikeout | 69.1% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 2 | Chandler Simpson vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 10% | Flyout | 65.1% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 1 | Denzer Guzman vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 21% | Groundout | 66.9% ▼ 6.0 |
| Bot 1 | Trey Mancini vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 25% hit 19% · K 22% | Triple +2 RBI | 72.9% ▲ 19.2 |
| Bot 1 | Oswald Peraza vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 26% hit 21% · K 24% | Strikeout | 53.7% |
| Bot 1 | Jo Adell vs Shane McClanahan | OUT AIR 28% hit 20% · K 25% | Single | 54.0% ▲ 6.6 |
| Bot 1 | Mike Trout vs Shane McClanahan | K 24% hit 17% · K 24% | Single | 47.4% |
| Bot 1 | Zach Neto vs Shane McClanahan | K 29% hit 18% · K 29% | Strikeout | 47.4% ▲ 4.6 |
| Top 1 | Ben Williamson vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 15% | Mound Visit | 42.9% ▼ 0.6 |
| Top 1 | Austin Slater vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 19% | Walk | 43.4% ▲ 5.4 |
| Top 1 | Ryan Vilade vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 29% hit 24% · K 14% | Walk | 38.0% ▼ 8.0 |
| Top 1 | Junior Caminero vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 12% | Flyout | 46.0% ▲ 8.6 |
| Top 1 | Jonathan Aranda vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 26% hit 23% · K 18% | Groundout | 37.4% ▼ 7.7 |
| Top 1 | Yandy Díaz vs Sam Aldegheri | OUT AIR 27% hit 28% · K 11% | Game Advisory | 45.1% |
"We expected" is the sim's pregame matchup probability for that PA. The win-prob column re-simulates the rest of the game from the state after each real outcome — every surprise cascades through everything downstream.
COL @ ATH — batter-by-batter tracker (50 PAs)
| Inn | Matchup | We expected | Actual | ATH win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 6 | Zack Gelof vs Zach Agnos | OUT AIR 26% hit 27% · K 18% | Single | 43.1% ▲ 4.8 |
| Bot 6 | Jonah Heim vs Zach Agnos | OUT AIR 29% hit 25% · K 15% | Strikeout | 38.3% ▼ 4.6 |
| Bot 6 | Jacob Wilson vs Zach Agnos | OUT AIR 29% hit 28% · K 11% | Walk | 42.9% ▲ 6.6 |
| Top 6 | Sterlin Thompson vs Justin Sterner | OUT AIR 25% hit 22% · K 20% | Lineout | 36.3% ▼ 1.1 |
| Top 6 | Cole Carrigg vs Justin Sterner | OUT AIR 27% hit 23% · K 19% | Home Run +3 RBI | 37.4% ▼ 27.1 |
| Top 6 | Troy Johnston vs Justin Sterner | OUT AIR 27% hit 25% · K 20% | Batter Timeout | 64.6% ▲ 7.1 |
| Top 6 | Hunter Goodman vs Justin Sterner | K 28% hit 23% · K 28% | Pitching Substitution | 57.4% ▼ 12.9 |
| Top 6 | TJ Rumfield vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 16% | Mound Visit | 70.3% ▲ 0.6 |
| Top 6 | Kyle Karros vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 20% · K 21% | Single | 69.7% ▼ 11.4 |
| Top 6 | Willi Castro vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 25% hit 24% · K 24% | Defensive Switch | 81.1% ▼ 2.3 |
| Bot 5 | Tyler Soderstrom vs Zach Agnos | OUT AIR 27% hit 24% · K 14% | Pitching Substitution | 83.4% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 5 | Lawrence Butler vs Seth Halvorsen | OUT AIR 24% hit 17% · K 23% | Offensive Substitution | 81.4% ▼ 2.6 |
| Bot 5 | Nick Kurtz vs Seth Halvorsen | K 25% hit 21% · K 25% | Home Run +1 RBI | 84.0% ▲ 10.6 |
| Bot 5 | Shea Langeliers vs Seth Halvorsen | OUT AIR 27% hit 23% · K 19% | Home Run +1 RBI | 73.4% ▲ 11.7 |
| Bot 5 | Henry Bolte vs Seth Halvorsen | K 25% hit 25% · K 25% | Strikeout | 61.7% |
| Bot 5 | Max Muncy vs Seth Halvorsen | K 26% hit 21% · K 26% | Lineout | 62.0% ▼ 2.3 |
| Top 5 | Chad Stevens vs Gage Jump | K 28% hit 19% · K 28% | Strikeout | 64.3% ▼ 1.4 |
| Top 5 | Braxton Fulford vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 20% · K 24% | Strikeout | 65.7% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 5 | Sterlin Thompson vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 24% hit 22% · K 20% | Strikeout | 61.7% ▲ 2.8 |
| Bot 4 | Zack Gelof vs Jeff Criswell | OUT AIR 25% hit 23% · K 23% | Groundout | 58.9% ▼ 4.3 |
| Bot 4 | Jonah Heim vs Jeff Criswell | OUT AIR 28% hit 21% · K 19% | Walk | 63.1% ▲ 3.1 |
| Bot 4 | Jacob Wilson vs Jeff Criswell | OUT AIR 29% hit 25% · K 15% | Flyout | 60.0% ▼ 7.7 |
| Bot 4 | Tyler Soderstrom vs Jeff Criswell | OUT AIR 26% hit 21% · K 18% | Pitching Substitution | 67.7% ▼ 0.9 |
| Top 4 | Cole Carrigg vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 18% | Batter Timeout | 68.6% ▲ 7.7 |
| Top 4 | Troy Johnston vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 26% · K 20% | Flyout | 60.9% ▼ 4.0 |
| Top 4 | Hunter Goodman vs Gage Jump | K 27% hit 22% · K 27% | Strikeout | 64.9% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 3 | Colby Thomas vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 22% | Mound Visit | 62.9% ▼ 2.0 |
| Bot 3 | Nick Kurtz vs Sean Sullivan | K 26% hit 23% · K 26% | Single | 64.9% ▼ 0.6 |
| Bot 3 | Shea Langeliers vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 19% | Flyout | 65.4% ▲ 1.1 |
| Bot 3 | Henry Bolte vs Sean Sullivan | K 26% hit 26% · K 26% | Hit By Pitch | 64.3% ▲ 3.4 |
| Bot 3 | Max Muncy vs Sean Sullivan | K 27% hit 22% · K 27% | Flyout | 60.9% ▼ 8.6 |
| Top 3 | TJ Rumfield vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 16% | Batter Timeout | 69.4% ▲ 2.0 |
| Top 3 | Kyle Karros vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 20% · K 21% | Groundout | 67.4% ▲ 1.7 |
| Top 3 | Willi Castro vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 25% hit 24% · K 24% | Groundout | 65.7% ▼ 2.0 |
| Bot 2 | Zack Gelof vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 25% hit 23% · K 23% | Batter Timeout | 67.7% |
| Bot 2 | Jonah Heim vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 18% | Double | 67.4% ▲ 3.7 |
| Bot 2 | Jacob Wilson vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 29% hit 25% · K 15% | Flyout | 63.7% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 2 | Tyler Soderstrom vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 27% hit 21% · K 18% | Pop Out | 65.4% ▼ 1.4 |
| Top 2 | Chad Stevens vs Gage Jump | K 28% hit 19% · K 28% | Flyout | 66.9% ▲ 0.9 |
| Top 2 | Braxton Fulford vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 20% · K 24% | Single | 66.0% |
| Top 2 | Sterlin Thompson vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 24% hit 22% · K 20% | Strikeout | 65.7% |
| Top 2 | Cole Carrigg vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 18% | Flyout | 66.0% ▲ 4.0 |
| Bot 1 | Colby Thomas vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 26% hit 24% · K 22% | Strikeout | 62.0% ▼ 4.3 |
| Bot 1 | Nick Kurtz vs Sean Sullivan | K 26% hit 23% · K 26% | Groundout | 66.3% ▼ 0.6 |
| Bot 1 | Shea Langeliers vs Sean Sullivan | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 19% | Flyout | 66.9% ▼ 4.3 |
| Top 1 | Troy Johnston vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 26% · K 20% | Lineout | 71.1% ▲ 2.9 |
| Top 1 | Hunter Goodman vs Gage Jump | K 27% hit 22% · K 27% | Strikeout | 68.3% ▲ 6.6 |
| Top 1 | TJ Rumfield vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 29% hit 22% · K 16% | Single | 61.7% ▼ 0.6 |
| Top 1 | Kyle Karros vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 26% hit 20% · K 21% | Single | 62.3% ▼ 8.6 |
| Top 1 | Willi Castro vs Gage Jump | OUT AIR 25% hit 24% · K 24% | Game Advisory | 70.9% |
"We expected" is the sim's pregame matchup probability for that PA. The win-prob column re-simulates the rest of the game from the state after each real outcome — every surprise cascades through everything downstream.
CHC @ SF — batter-by-batter tracker (45 PAs)
| Inn | Matchup | We expected | Actual | SF win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 6 | Bryce Eldridge vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 25% hit 25% · K 20% | Game Advisory | 5.1% ▲ 2.6 |
| Bot 6 | Luis Arraez vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 34% hit 26% · K 7% | Groundout | 2.6% ▼ 2.9 |
| Bot 6 | Daniel Susac vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 17% | Groundout | 5.4% |
| Top 6 | Moisés Ballesteros vs JT Brubaker | OUT AIR 27% hit 20% · K 18% | Groundout | 5.1% ▼ 1.4 |
| Top 6 | Nico Hoerner vs JT Brubaker | OUT AIR 32% hit 21% · K 9% | Groundout | 6.6% ▲ 0.9 |
| Top 6 | Seiya Suzuki vs JT Brubaker | OUT AIR 27% hit 20% · K 21% | Pitching Substitution | 5.7% |
| Bot 5 | Drew Gilbert vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 30% hit 22% · K 16% | Grounded Into DP | 5.4% |
| Bot 5 | Matt Chapman vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 28% hit 24% · K 16% | Walk | 5.4% ▼ 0.6 |
| Bot 5 | Willy Adames vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 30% hit 22% · K 21% | Strikeout | 6.0% ▼ 5.1 |
| Top 5 | Ian Happ vs Erik Miller | K 30% hit 18% · K 30% | Flyout | 11.1% ▼ 15.4 |
| Top 5 | Michael Busch vs Erik Miller | K 24% hit 19% · K 24% | Pitching Substitution | 26.6% ▲ 1.4 |
| Top 5 | Alex Bregman vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 26% hit 22% · K 20% | Double | 25.1% ▼ 2.3 |
| Top 5 | Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Landen Roupp | K 26% hit 22% · K 26% | Flyout | 27.4% ▲ 3.1 |
| Top 5 | Dansby Swanson vs Landen Roupp | K 25% hit 17% · K 25% | Flyout | 24.3% |
| Top 5 | Carson Kelly vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 25% hit 25% · K 20% | Walk | 24.0% ▼ 1.1 |
| Bot 4 | Jung Hoo Lee vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 31% hit 28% · K 10% | Groundout | 25.1% ▼ 11.1 |
| Bot 4 | Rafael Devers vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 27% hit 22% · K 22% | Strikeout | 36.3% ▲ 1.4 |
| Bot 4 | Casey Schmitt vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 32% hit 24% · K 16% | Groundout | 34.9% ▼ 2.8 |
| Bot 4 | Bryce Eldridge vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 25% hit 25% · K 20% | Single | 37.7% ▲ 7.1 |
| Top 4 | Moisés Ballesteros vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 25% hit 21% · K 22% | Groundout | 30.6% ▼ 4.9 |
| Top 4 | Nico Hoerner vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 30% hit 23% · K 12% | Batter Timeout | 35.4% ▼ 0.9 |
| Top 4 | Seiya Suzuki vs Landen Roupp | K 26% hit 21% · K 26% | Double +1 RBI | 36.3% ▼ 17.1 |
| Top 4 | Ian Happ vs Landen Roupp | K 30% hit 19% · K 30% | Forceout | 53.4% ▲ 5.4 |
| Top 4 | Michael Busch vs Landen Roupp | K 24% hit 20% · K 24% | Walk | 48.0% ▼ 5.4 |
| Bot 3 | Luis Arraez vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 34% hit 26% · K 7% | Flyout | 53.4% ▼ 3.1 |
| Bot 3 | Daniel Susac vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 28% hit 25% · K 17% | Strikeout | 56.6% ▼ 2.9 |
| Bot 3 | Drew Gilbert vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 30% hit 22% · K 16% | Strikeout | 59.4% ▲ 6.9 |
| Top 3 | Alex Bregman vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 26% hit 22% · K 20% | Lineout | 52.6% ▼ 5.7 |
| Top 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Landen Roupp | K 26% hit 22% · K 26% | Batter Timeout | 58.3% ▲ 2.3 |
| Top 3 | Dansby Swanson vs Landen Roupp | K 25% hit 17% · K 25% | Pop Out | 56.0% ▲ 5.7 |
| Top 3 | Carson Kelly vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 25% hit 25% · K 20% | Strikeout | 50.3% ▼ 1.4 |
| Bot 2 | Matt Chapman vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 28% hit 24% · K 16% | Groundout | 51.7% ▼ 6.6 |
| Bot 2 | Willy Adames vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 30% hit 22% · K 21% | Pop Out | 58.3% ▲ 6.9 |
| Bot 2 | Jung Hoo Lee vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 31% hit 28% · K 10% | Groundout | 51.4% ▼ 2.6 |
| Top 2 | Moisés Ballesteros vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 25% hit 21% · K 22% | Groundout | 54.0% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 2 | Nico Hoerner vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 30% hit 23% · K 12% | Batter Timeout | 50.0% ▲ 0.9 |
| Top 2 | Seiya Suzuki vs Landen Roupp | K 26% hit 21% · K 26% | Double | 49.1% ▼ 3.7 |
| Top 2 | Ian Happ vs Landen Roupp | K 30% hit 19% · K 30% | Strikeout | 52.9% ▲ 9.7 |
| Bot 1 | Rafael Devers vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 27% hit 22% · K 22% | Groundout | 43.1% ▼ 10.6 |
| Bot 1 | Casey Schmitt vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 32% hit 24% · K 16% | Pop Out | 53.7% ▼ 4.0 |
| Bot 1 | Bryce Eldridge vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 25% hit 25% · K 20% | Strikeout | 57.7% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 1 | Luis Arraez vs Javier Assad | OUT AIR 34% hit 26% · K 7% | Batter Timeout | 55.7% ▲ 1.1 |
| Top 1 | Michael Busch vs Landen Roupp | K 24% hit 20% · K 24% | Batter Timeout | 54.6% ▼ 0.9 |
| Top 1 | Alex Bregman vs Landen Roupp | OUT AIR 26% hit 22% · K 20% | Strikeout | 55.4% ▼ 0.6 |
| Top 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Landen Roupp | K 26% hit 22% · K 26% | Game Advisory | 56.0% |
"We expected" is the sim's pregame matchup probability for that PA. The win-prob column re-simulates the rest of the game from the state after each real outcome — every surprise cascades through everything downstream.