Mithrandir Metrics
Player Texas Rangers Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 217 lb · Age 36

Cards
22
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Texas Rangers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241283.8029290170.21661.11
20251131.7322220130.01290.85
20261094.2122220132.21371.21
15 Seasons112933.9133831901835.016241.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace4.21
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.87 3.40 3.98 4.57 5.10
FIP
3.41 3.70 4.02 4.34 4.63
K%
21.3% 22.4% 23.5% 24.7% 25.7%
BB%
4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
71
ERA4.21
45
BB%5.8%
91
K%24.0%
63 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
46 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo94.2
45
Hard-hit allowed41.6%
29
Whiff%27.9%
85 +37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+103
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eovaldi, Nathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-08-23: 0.3162026-08-24: 0.3162026-08-25: 0.3162026-08-26: 0.3162026-08-27: 0.3162026-08-28: 0.3162026-08-29: 0.3162026-08-30: 0.3162026-08-31: 0.3162026-09-01: 0.3162026-09-02: 0.3162026-09-03: 0.316 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eovaldi, Nathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 36.5%Curveball: 22.4%Cutter: 19.2%4-Seam Fastball: 13.8%Sinker: 7.2%Slider: 0.9% FS37% · 88 mphprimary pitch FS 37%CU 22%FC 19%FF 14%SI 7%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.5 mphFS88 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.4 mphCU76 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSinker: 7% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.8% 253 103 qualified
CB 33.6% 251 100 qualified
FB 19.5% 146 106 limited sample
SI 11.8% 88 104 limited sample
SL 1.3% 10 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 2"
Weight217 lb
Debut2011-08-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.62
K% Δ+0.026

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.335
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.316

Eovaldi’s wOBA-against sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.019, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 136 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching222026-08-07Split-Finger played up through FS/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-13 @ ATH0 ER / 7 K7.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs SEA2 ER / 7 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ BAL6 ER / 5 K4.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ PHI5 ER / 7 K4.2 IP