Mithrandir Metrics
Player MIL Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / MIL

Lance McCullers Jr.

Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 32

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club MIL Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2022422.2788047.2501.24
2025256.511613055.1611.81
2026236.8688039.1431.53
9 Seasons53403.851541480813.19041.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
24
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal7 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA6.86
4
BB%13.2%
11
K%23.3%
56
xwOBA allowed0.329
35
Barrel allowed8.6%
37
Fastball velo91.5
10
Hard-hit allowed49.1%
3
Whiff%24.1%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Cutter Stuff+99
30
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+99
33
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McCullers Jr.., Lance · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.3292026-07-18: 0.3292026-07-19: 0.329 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McCullers Jr.., Lance · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr.., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 27.2%Sinker: 22.5%Sweeper: 16.0%Knuckle Curve: 15.0%Changeup: 14.5%4-Seam Fastball: 4.8% FC27% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 27%SI 23%ST 16%KC 15%CH 14%FF 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr.., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphKnuckle Curve: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 81.6 mphKC82 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 27.1% 188 99 limited sample
SI 22.7% 158 104 limited sample
SL 16.7% 116 99 limited sample
CB 15.5% 108 100 limited sample
CH 13.7% 95 100 limited sample
FB 4.3% 30 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.405
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.329

Jr.’s wOBA-against sits at 0.405, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.329 — a gap of 0.076, 2.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 43 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-05-06Knuckle Curve played up through KC/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.3% K | 4.73 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-05 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 1 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-03-30 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB