Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Jorge Mateo

SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 200 lb · Age 31

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position SS Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20242083044513.229.267.401.668
202583914115.177.217.266.483
20261673536515.232.281.374.655
7 Seasons157821832435121.222.268.364.632
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
70
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
61
Defense4 metrics
52
Speed4 metrics
82
Plate skills12 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
xwOBA preseason0.289
xwOBA current pace0.318
xwOBA rolling p500.302
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.259 0.280 0.302 0.325 0.346
wOBA
0.299 0.320 0.343 0.367 0.388
ISO
0.109 0.128 0.151 0.173 0.192
K%
22.0% 23.9% 26.0% 28.1% 30.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
66 +36 vs proj
Exit velocity87.6
47
Hard-hit%41.8%
66 +25 vs proj
xBA0.370
93
xSLG0.613
82
xwOBA0.318
67 +31 vs proj
BB%7.1%
33
Bat speed70.6
66
K%26.6%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
26
Arm Strength94.1 · SS
95
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs0.6 · SS
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · SS
76
Bolts31.0 · SS
86
SB Success Rate85.7% · SS
67
Sprint Speed30.3 · SS
100
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.0% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions62.3% · rebadged research
17
Fastball Stuff+85
1
Mithrandir Stuff+80
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
18
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mateo, Jorge · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.318 2026-08-21: 0.3242026-08-22: 0.3242026-08-23: 0.3242026-08-24: 0.3242026-08-25: 0.3212026-08-26: 0.3212026-08-27: 0.3222026-08-28: 0.3222026-08-29: 0.3222026-08-30: 0.3172026-08-31: 0.3182026-09-01: 0.318 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2025Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mateo, Jorge · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 42%42%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mateo, Jorge · 2025 arsenal snapshot Other: 62.9%Eephus: 37.1% FA63% · 68 mphprimary pitch FA 63%EP 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mateo, Jorge · 2025 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Other: 63% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 68.4 mphFA68 mphEephus: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 69″ drop, 61.0 mphEP61 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 19 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 0"
Weight200 lb
Debut2020-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.027
wOBA Δ+0.052

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.343
xwOBA (deserved)0.318

Mateo’s wOBA sits at 0.343, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.025, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 184 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding62026-08-303 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.346
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.292 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0 | R
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E0-3 | BB, K, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0
2026-04-13 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K