Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Oct 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Paul Sewald

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 219 lb · Age 36

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024124.314201639.2431.13
2025114.58220219.2201.22
2026254.736202453.1530.99
10 Seasons23314.194430110449.15231.13
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-17
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.72
ERA rolling p504.37
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.68 3.48 4.37 5.26 6.06
FIP
3.74 4.09 4.48 4.87 5.22
K%
19.3% 21.5% 23.9% 26.4% 28.5%
BB%
5.0% 6.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.98
94
ERA4.72
32
BB%6.0%
89 +36 vs proj
K%23.4%
59
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.5%
3 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
57
Whiff%22.6%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-17
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+104
67
Cutter Stuff+96
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sewald, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-10-06: 0.3122026-10-07: 0.3122026-10-08: 0.3122026-10-09: 0.3122026-10-10: 0.3122026-10-11: 0.3122026-10-12: 0.3122026-10-13: 0.3122026-10-14: 0.3122026-10-15: 0.3122026-10-16: 0.3122026-10-17: 0.312 2026-10-06 2026-10-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sewald, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.6%Sweeper: 42.5%Cutter: 2.0% FF56% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 56%ST 42%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.9% 293 107 qualified
SL 43.8% 238 104 qualified
FC 2.4% 13 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 3"
Weight219 lb
Debut2017-04-08
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.75
K% Δ-0.005

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.329
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.312

Sewald’s wOBA-against sits at 0.329, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.016, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 57 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-05-20 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ BAL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ PHI0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ NYM0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP