Mithrandir Metrics
Player Arizona Diamondbacks Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael Soroka

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 250 lb · Age 28

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Arizona Diamondbacks Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20240104.74259079.2841.38
2025384.522217089.2951.13
2026833.071515082.0791.09
7 Seasons28293.73106840497.24581.20
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.07
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.40 2.89 3.45 4.00 4.49
FIP
2.70 3.07 3.49 3.92 4.29
K%
21.5% 22.7% 24.1% 25.5% 26.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
75
ERA3.07
74
BB%5.3%
94 +50 vs proj
K%24.6%
65 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
54
Barrel allowed8.7%
35
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
76
Whiff%20.2%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Slider Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+106
74
Cutter Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+110
98
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soroka, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.309 2026-07-07: 0.3092026-07-08: 0.3092026-07-09: 0.3092026-07-10: 0.3092026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.3092026-07-17: 0.3092026-07-18: 0.309 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soroka, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 32.7%4-Seam Fastball: 32.2%Changeup: 12.0%Cutter: 11.7%Sinker: 10.8%Sweeper: 0.6% SV33% · 81 mphprimary pitch SV 33%FF 32%CH 12%FC 12%SI 11%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soroka, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slurve: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.6 mphSV81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 11% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.5 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.9% 369 102 qualified
FB 31.3% 341 105 qualified
CH 12.0% 131 106 limited sample
FC 11.8% 128 105 limited sample
SI 10.9% 119 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight250 lb
Debut2018-05-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ+0.027

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.332
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.309

Soroka’s wOBA-against sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.023, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 90 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-27Slurve played up through SV/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.9% K | 4.10 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs TOR2 ER / 5 K7.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs ATL1 ER / 3 K5.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs DET0 ER / 10 K5.0 IP