Mithrandir Metrics
Player ATH Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / ATH

Aaron Civale

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 245 lb · Age 31

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club ATH Position -- Roster profile Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024894.3631310161.01491.30
2025494.8523181102.0881.26
2026575.421615074.2581.62
8 Seasons48514.261561501813.07231.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
24
Arsenal6 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.56
13
ERA5.42
17
BB%6.4%
83
K%19.1%
27
xwOBA allowed0.347
18
Barrel allowed9.8%
22
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
8
Whiff%18.5%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+104
86
Cutter Stuff+106
84
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+106
79
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Civale, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.347 2026-07-06: 0.3482026-07-07: 0.3482026-07-08: 0.3482026-07-09: 0.3482026-07-10: 0.3482026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3462026-07-14: 0.3472026-07-15: 0.3472026-07-16: 0.3472026-07-17: 0.347 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Civale, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 34.8%Curveball: 24.5%Sinker: 19.0%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Split-Finger: 5.5%Slider: 3.5% FC35% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 35%CU 24%SI 19%FF 13%FS 6%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Cutter: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 77.0 mphCU77 mphSinker: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mphSlider: 4% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.3 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 38.0% 328 106 qualified
CB 24.7% 213 104 qualified
SI 20.7% 179 102 limited sample
FB 12.7% 110 103 limited sample
SL 3.8% 33 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.399
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.347

Civale’s wOBA-against sits at 0.399, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.347 — a gap of 0.052, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 79 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-04Cutter played up through FC/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.