Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Aaron Civale

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 245 lb · Age 31

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024894.3631310161.01491.30
2025494.8523181102.0881.26
2026674.3728152101.0831.47
8 Seasons49514.171681503839.17481.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason4.51
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.50
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.47 3.96 4.50 5.05 5.54
FIP
3.62 3.97 4.37 4.77 5.12
K%
17.9% 18.9% 20.1% 21.2% 22.2%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.50
37
BB%6.6%
83
K%20.0%
34
xwOBA allowed0.325
35
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo91.5
10
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%19.0%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-06
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Fastball Stuff+104
59
Slider Stuff+107
88
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Civale, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.325 2026-08-26: 0.3302026-08-27: 0.3302026-08-28: 0.3302026-08-29: 0.3302026-08-30: 0.3302026-08-31: 0.3292026-09-01: 0.3292026-09-02: 0.3292026-09-03: 0.3292026-09-04: 0.3292026-09-05: 0.3252026-09-06: 0.325 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Civale, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 36.5%Curveball: 25.2%Sinker: 16.8%4-Seam Fastball: 11.8%Split-Finger: 6.3%Slider: 3.4% FC36% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 36%CU 25%SI 17%FF 12%FS 6%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Civale, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Cutter: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.9 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 77.3 mphCU77 mphSinker: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.5 mphFS85 mphSlider: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 40.2% 429 106 qualified
CB 25.7% 275 105 qualified
SI 19.5% 208 101 qualified
FB 11.1% 119 104 limited sample
SL 3.5% 37 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 1"
Weight245 lb
Debut2019-06-22
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ+0.009

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.364
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.325

Civale’s wOBA-against sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.325 — a gap of 0.039, 1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-04Cutter played up through FC/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.0% K | 4.29 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ LAA5 ER / 2 K5.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs CWS5 ER / 4 K4.2 IP
2026-04-12 @ NYM0 ER / 3 K5.2 IP
2026-04-07 @ NYY1 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-03-31 @ ATL2 ER / 3 K5.0 IP