Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 213 lb · Age 30

Cards
22
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202411124.2531310178.01661.30
20256154.1932320176.11501.26
2026685.2922220115.2891.37
8 Seasons48734.601871850993.29261.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
40
ERA5.29
21
BB%8.6%
54
K%18.6%
24
xwOBA allowed0.355
12
Barrel allowed7.6%
49
Fastball velo93.0
25
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%18.9%
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-04
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+104
73
Changeup Stuff+109
96
Curveball Stuff+97
2
Cutter Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.355 2026-08-24: 0.3552026-08-25: 0.3552026-08-26: 0.3552026-08-27: 0.3552026-08-28: 0.3552026-08-29: 0.3552026-08-30: 0.3552026-08-31: 0.3552026-09-01: 0.3552026-09-02: 0.3552026-09-03: 0.3552026-09-04: 0.355 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.2%Sinker: 17.9%Sweeper: 16.0%Curveball: 9.2%Changeup: 9.0%Slider: 8.9% FF32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 18%ST 16%CU 9%CH 9%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSlider: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.3% 417 105 qualified
SL 25.8% 314 104 qualified
SI 15.6% 189 97 limited sample
CH 10.7% 130 109 limited sample
CB 7.3% 89 97 limited sample
FC 6.3% 76 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight213 lb
Debut2019-05-27
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.363
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.355

Keller’s wOBA-against sits at 0.363, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.355 — a gap of 0.008, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 123 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching222026-08-024-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-14 vs WSH5 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs SD0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs BAL2 ER / 4 K6.0 IP