Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 208 lb |
| Debut | 2020-09-12 |
Player profile / Reno Aces
Pavin Smith
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 208 lb · Age 30
Club Reno Aces
Position 1B
Roster profile
Status Out / inactive
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 158 | 26 | 37 | 9 | 1 | .270 | .348 | .547 | .895 |
| 2025 | 288 | 36 | 63 | 8 | 2 | .258 | .362 | .434 | .796 |
| 2026 | 89 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | .141 | .236 | .192 | .428 |
| 7 Seasons | 1629 | 192 | 344 | 46 | 8 | .241 | .325 | .394 | .719 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
21
Exit velocity85.7
23
Hard-hit%31.9%
21
xBA0.244
3
xSLG0.329
2
xwOBA0.255
9
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed68.8
38
K%21.2%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.2 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.7% · rebadged research
6
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
26
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
40 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Smith’s wOBA sits at 0.257, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.255 — a gap of 0.001, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 104 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |