Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Jhoan Duran

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 28

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024693.645802354.1661.16
2025762.067203270.0801.10
2026131.383402432.2500.92
5 Seasons19282.322800114287.03691.07
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
97
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal5 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.38
ERA rolling p502.50
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.06 1.74 2.50 3.25 3.93
FIP
1.55 1.99 2.48 2.97 3.41
K%
25.3% 27.9% 30.8% 33.7% 36.3%
BB%
4.9% 6.2% 7.6% 9.1% 10.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.91
95
ERA1.38
99
BB%5.1%
95 +50 vs proj
K%37.2%
99 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.229
99 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.9%
93 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo100.2
99
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
16
Whiff%35.2%
99 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+91
3
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+85
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.229 2026-07-07: 0.2332026-07-08: 0.2332026-07-09: 0.2272026-07-10: 0.2272026-07-11: 0.2322026-07-12: 0.2322026-07-13: 0.2292026-07-14: 0.2292026-07-15: 0.2292026-07-16: 0.2292026-07-17: 0.2292026-07-18: 0.229 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 35%35%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 45.1%4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Knuckle Curve: 10.3%Sweeper: 10.3%Changeup: 7.4% FS45% · 97 mphprimary pitch FS 45%FF 27%KC 10%ST 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 97.4 mphFS97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 100.2 mphFF100 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 88.3 mphKC88 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.7 mphST89 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 93 105 limited sample
CB 19.7% 38 98 limited sample
SL 18.1% 35 85 limited sample
CH 14.0% 27 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2022-04-08
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.97
K% Δ+0.104

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.242
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.229

Duran’s wOBA-against sits at 0.242, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.229 — a gap of 0.013, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 35 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.8% K | 3.35 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 vs AZ0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ SF0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ COL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs WSH0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-03-31 vs WSH0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP