Mithrandir Metrics
Player BOS Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / BOS

Jovani Morán

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 167 lb · Age 29

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club BOS Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023225.31430042.1481.46
2025006.752004.052.00
2026233.55433058.1631.15
5 Seasons463.9912431153.11801.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.65 2.58 3.62 4.65 5.58
FIP
3.24 3.77 4.37 4.96 5.50
K%
19.2% 21.0% 23.1% 25.1% 26.9%
BB%
8.5% 9.9% 11.5% 13.0% 14.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA3.00
81
BB%12.4%
17 -17 vs proj
K%25.5%
73 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.290
75
Barrel allowed9.2%
25 -43 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed30.1%
95
Whiff%29.9%
92
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+98
18
Cutter Stuff+98
19
Sinker Stuff+103
64
Slider Stuff+100
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morán, Jovani · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.290 2026-08-21: 0.2722026-08-22: 0.2722026-08-23: 0.2722026-08-24: 0.2722026-08-25: 0.2802026-08-26: 0.2802026-08-27: 0.2802026-08-28: 0.2802026-08-29: 0.2802026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.2902026-09-01: 0.290 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morán, Jovani · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.3%Changeup: 35.7%Cutter: 12.5%Sinker: 7.7%Sweeper: 4.5%Curveball: 0.2% FF39% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CH 36%FC 13%SI 8%ST 5%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 36% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCutter: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.2 mphFC85 mphSinker: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 79.5 mphST80 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.5% 302 99 qualified
CH 36.8% 274 99 qualified
FC 13.4% 100 98 limited sample
SI 4.7% 35 103 limited sample
SL 4.3% 32 100 limited sample
CB 0.3% 2 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.13
K% Δ+0.038

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.325
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.290

Morán’s wOBA-against sits at 0.325, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.290 — a gap of 0.035, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 59 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-05-23Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.9% K | 4.00 ERAProjection