Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Tony Santillan

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 285 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024333.00291030.0461.00
2025152.44800773.2751.11
2026145.23340531.0281.39
6 Seasons7163.36193516201.02271.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal3 metrics
19
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.52 3.33 4.23 5.13 5.94
FIP
3.51 4.02 4.58 5.15 5.66
K%
19.5% 21.8% 24.4% 26.9% 29.2%
BB%
6.8% 8.3% 9.9% 11.6% 13.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA5.23
20
BB%10.7%
27
K%22.9%
53
xwOBA allowed0.348
17
Barrel allowed11.0%
12 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
51
Hard-hit allowed47.3%
6
Whiff%19.2%
18 -52 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+101
36
Mithrandir Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+90
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santillan, Tony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.348 2026-07-06: 0.3482026-07-07: 0.3482026-07-08: 0.3482026-07-09: 0.3482026-07-10: 0.3482026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3482026-07-13: 0.3482026-07-14: 0.3482026-07-15: 0.3482026-07-16: 0.3482026-07-17: 0.348 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santillan, Tony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.8%Slurve: 33.9%Slider: 2.3% FF64% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 64%SV 34%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 64% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 84.5 mphSV85 mphSlider: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.5% 249 101 qualified
SL 35.5% 137 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight285 lb
Debut2021-06-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.27
K% Δ-0.012

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.380
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.348

Santillan’s wOBA-against sits at 0.380, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.348 — a gap of 0.032, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 32 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.1% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs LAA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ MIA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ TEX0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP